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Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic

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  • Yoo-Mi Chin

    (Baylor University)

  • Nicholas Wilson

    (Reed College)

Abstract

A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable (IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic has reduced GDP per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, 2018. "Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 429-451, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:31:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00148-017-0669-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-017-0669-5
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    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences > Mortality
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences > Fertility

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    Cited by:

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    2. Marcos A. Rangel & Jenna Nobles & Amar Hamoudi, 2020. "Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1647-1680, October.
    3. Gori, Luca & Manfredi, Piero & Sodini, Mauro, 2021. "A Parsimonious Model Of Longevity, Fertility, Hiv Transmission And Development," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1155-1174, July.
    4. Portner, Claus C., 2023. "How Is Fertility Behavior in Africa Different?," SocArXiv jf9um, Center for Open Science.
    5. Mansour, Hani & Rees, Daniel I. & Reeves, James, 2020. "Voting and Political Participation in the Aftermath of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic," IZA Discussion Papers 13442, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Sharma, Amalesh & Borah, Sourav Bikash & Moses, Aditya C., 2021. "Responses to COVID-19: The role of governance, healthcare infrastructure, and learning from past pandemics," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 597-607.
    7. Yun Qiu & Xi Chen & Wei Shi, 2020. "Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1127-1172, October.
    8. Hani Mansour & Daniel I. Rees & James M. Reeves, 2020. "Voting and Political Participation in the Aftermath of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 27504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rangel, Marcos & Nobles, Jenna & Hamoudi, Amar, 2019. "Brazil's Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," SocArXiv fu8bp, Center for Open Science.
    10. Fernanda Marquez-Padilla & Biani Saavedra, 2022. "The unintended effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home orders on abortions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 269-305, January.
    11. Luca GORI & Enrico LUPI & Piero MANFREDI & Mauro SODINI, 2020. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Development and the Demographic Transition: Fertility Reversal under the HIV Epidemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    12. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sven Fischer, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Marriage and Childbirth: Survey-based Evidence from Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202320, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2019. "Measuring the Economic Risk of Epidemics," CESifo Working Paper Series 8016, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disease; Fertility; HIV/AIDS; Instrumental variable regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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