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Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

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  • Qiu, Yun
  • Chen, Xi
  • Shi, Wei

Abstract

This paper examines the role of various socioeconomic factors in mediating the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We implement a machine learning approach to select instrumental variables that strongly predict virus transmission among the rich exogenous weather characteristics. Our 2SLS estimates show that the stringent quarantine, massive lockdown and other public health measures imposed in late January significantly reduced the transmission rate of COVID-19. By early February, the virus spread had been contained. While many socioeconomic factors mediate the virus spread, a robust government response since late January played a determinant role in the containment of the virus. We also demonstrate that the actual population ow from the outbreak source poses a higher risk to the destination than other factors such as geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. The results have rich implications for ongoing global efforts in containment of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiu, Yun & Chen, Xi & Shi, Wei, 2020. "Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China," GLO Discussion Paper Series 494, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:494
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    2019 novel coronavirus; transmission;

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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