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Illegal immigration and infections: Evidence from two modern pandemics

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  • Shen, Lucas

Abstract

The predominant attention on the global transmission of pandemics has centered on official travel. This study shifts the lens to the role of illegal immigration in the H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics using trafficking inflow risk. The empirical strategy exploits cross-country differences in coastline lengths as a measure of porosity to instrument for trafficking risk, with fatality rates used as falsification tests. The findings show that countries with higher trafficking risk experience higher infection rates, but not higher fatality rates. Combining an augmented epidemiological model of transmission dynamics with high-frequency COVID-19 data, this study identifies early increases in contact rates as a key mechanism driving transmission. These results underscore the importance of early lockdowns in curbing transmission and expose possible gaps in public health systems for vulnerable populations during pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Shen, Lucas, 2025. "Illegal immigration and infections: Evidence from two modern pandemics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:145:y:2025:i:c:s0264999324003201
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106963
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Propagation of diseases; Pandemics; Illegal immigration; Human trafficking; Health economics; Public health;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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