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Gaps between official and excess Covid-19 mortality measures: The effects of institutional quality and vaccinations

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Cukierman, Alex
  • Jinjarak, Yothin
  • Nair-Desai, Sameer
  • Xin, Weining

Abstract

We evaluate quartile rankings of countries during the Covid-19 pandemic using both official (confirmed) and excess mortality data. By December 2021, the quartile rankings of three-fifths of the countries differ when ranked by excess vs. official mortality. Countries that are ‘doing substantially better’ in the excess mortality are characterized by higher urban population shares; higher GDP/Capita; and higher scores on institutional and policy variables. We perform two regressions in which the ratio of Cumulative Excess to Official Covid-19 mortalities (E/O ratio) is regressed on covariates. In a narrow study, controlling for GDP/Capita and vaccination rates, by December 2021 the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher vaccination rates. In a broad study, adding institutional and policy variables, the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher degree of voice and accountability. The arrival of vaccines in 2021 and voice and accountability had a discernible association on the E/O ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Cukierman, Alex & Jinjarak, Yothin & Nair-Desai, Sameer & Xin, Weining, 2022. "Gaps between official and excess Covid-19 mortality measures: The effects of institutional quality and vaccinations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:116:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002334
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105990
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    Cited by:

    1. Colin W. Binns & Mi Kyung Lee & Thi Thuy Duong Doan & Andy Lee & Minh Pham & Yun Zhao, 2022. "COVID and Gender: A Narrative Review of the Asia-Pacific Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Voice and accountability; Official mortality; Excess mortality; Vaccines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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