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Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

Author

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  • Robert C. M. Beyer
  • Yingyao Hu
  • Jiaxiong Yao

Abstract

This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert C. M. Beyer & Yingyao Hu & Jiaxiong Yao, 2022. "Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space," IMF Working Papers 2022/109, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/109
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    Cited by:

    1. Andres Alonso-Robisco & Jose Carbo & Emily Kormanyos & Elena Triebskorn, 2025. "Houston, we have a problem: can satellite information bridge the climate-related data gap?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Addressing climate change data needs: the central banks' contribution, volume 63, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Cukierman, Alex & Jinjarak, Yothin & Nair-Desai, Sameer & Xin, Weining, 2022. "Gaps between official and excess Covid-19 mortality measures: The effects of institutional quality and vaccinations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Ke Liu & Xu Bo & Wang Zhaoping & Ran Du & Chen Heng, 2025. "Measurement of population agglomeration, dynamic change characteristics, and motivations in metropolitan agglomerations—A case study of the Xi’an metropolitan area," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Xia, Xiqiang & Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Dogan, Eyup, 2024. "Transition towards the sustainable development: unraveling the effects of mineral markets, Belt & Road Initiative, and the Paris Agreement on green economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Kim, Jihee & Kim, Kyoochul & Park, Sangyoon & Sun, Chang, 2023. "The economic costs of trade sanctions: Evidence from North Korea," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Yeonha Jung & Gedeon Lim & Sangyoon Park, 2025. "Civilian Killings and Long-Run Development: Evidence from the Korean War," CESifo Working Paper Series 11974, CESifo.
    7. Beyer, Robert C.M. & Jain, Tarun & Sinha, Sonalika, 2023. "Lights out? COVID-19 containment policies and economic activity," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. McSharry, Patrick & Mawejje, Joseph, 2024. "Estimating urban GDP growth using nighttime lights and machine learning techniques in data poor environments: The case of South Sudan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. World Bank, 2024. "Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2024," World Bank Publications - Reports 42525, The World Bank Group.

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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