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The economic costs of trade sanctions: Evidence from North Korea

Author

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  • Kim, Jihee
  • Kim, Kyoochul
  • Park, Sangyoon
  • Sun, Chang

Abstract

This paper investigates the economic costs of the recent United Nations sanctions on North Korea. Exploiting a novel data set on North Korean firms, we construct measures of regional exposure to export and intermediate input sanctions and show that trade sanctions cause sharp declines in local nighttime luminosity. Additional analysis of newly available product-level price data reveals that import sanctions led to significant increases in market prices. We then estimate a quantitative spatial equilibrium model using cross-region variations. The model implies that the sanctions reduced the country's manufacturing output by 12.9% and real income by 15.3%. We further quantify the potential impact of alternative sanction scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jihee & Kim, Kyoochul & Park, Sangyoon & Sun, Chang, 2023. "The economic costs of trade sanctions: Evidence from North Korea," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:145:y:2023:i:c:s0022199623000995
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103813
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade sanction; Regional economy; Spatial equilibrium; North Korea;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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