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On the Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare: New Evidence Based on Structural Gravity and a New Database

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr

    (Kiel Institute, Kiel University)

  • Constantinos Syropoulos

    (School of Economics, Drexel University & CESifo.)

  • Erdal Yalcin

    (Konstanz University of Applied Sciences & CESifo)

  • Yoto Yotov

    (School of Economics, Drexel University & CESifo & ifo Institute & ERI-BAS)

Abstract

Using a new, global data base covering the years 1950 to 2015, we study the impact of sanctions on international trade and welfare. We make use of the rich dimensionality of our data and of the latest developments in the structural gravity literature. Starting with a broad evaluation by sanction type, we carefully investigate the case of Iran. Effects are significant but also widely heterogeneous across sanctioning countries. Moreover, they depend on the direction of trade. We also perform a counterfactual analysis which translates our partial equilibrium sanction estimates into heterogeneous but intuitive general equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Constantinos Syropoulos & Erdal Yalcin & Yoto Yotov, 2019. "On the Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare: New Evidence Based on Structural Gravity and a New Database," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2019_003
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    Cited by:

    1. Lisandra Flach & Inga Heiland & Mario Larch & Marina Steininger & Feodora A. Teti, 2024. "Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 281-323, February.
    2. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2022. "Your Pain, My Gain? On the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264095, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Ali Dadpay & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2021. "Political Agreements and Exporting Activities: An Empirical Assessment of the Effects of the JCPOA Agreement on Iran’s Exports," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 147-180, March.
    4. Demena, B.A. & Benalcazar Jativa, G. & Reta, A.S. & Kimararungu, P.B. & van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2021. "Does research on economic sanctions suffer from publication bias?," ISS Working Papers - General Series 674, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    5. Eckhard Janeba, 2024. "Extraterritorial trade sanctions: Theory and application to the US–Iran–EU conflict," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 49-71, February.
    6. P. Okillong & J. Luwedde & A.K. Nattabi, 2025. "How do sanctions shape intra-African trade? Implications for AfCFTA Implementation," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 4(2), pages 36-48.
    7. Firat Demir & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2022. "Gendered effects of sanctions on manufacturing employment: Evidence from Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2040-2069, November.
    8. Muharrem Cevik, 2026. "Sanctions and Creative Trade: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers 202601, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    9. Sumit Joshi & Ahmed Saber Mahmud & Abhinaba Nandy & Sudipta Sarangi, 2024. "Sanctions in directed trade networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 72-108, February.
    10. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2022. "Your Pain, My Gain? Estimating the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-698, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    11. Kim, Jihee & Kim, Kyoochul & Park, Sangyoon & Sun, Chang, 2023. "The economic costs of trade sanctions: Evidence from North Korea," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Markos Farag & Chahir Zaki, 2024. "On the economic and political determinants of trade in natural gas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 806-836, February.
    13. Fatemeh Rahimzadeh & Hamed Pirpour & Bahman P. Ebrahimi, 2022. "The impact of economic sanctions on the efficiency of bilateral energy exports: the case of Iran," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-18, September.
    14. Weber, Patrick M. & Schneider, Gerald, 2020. "How many hands to make sanctions work? Comparing EU and US sanctioning efforts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Gold, Robert & Hinz, Julian & Valsecchi, Michele, 2023. "To Russia with love? The impact of sanctions on regime support," Kiel Working Papers 2212, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    16. Markos Farag & Chahir Zaki, 2021. "On the Determinants of Trade in Natural Gas: A Political Economy Approach," EWI Working Papers 2021-8, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    17. Drapkin, I. & Simachev, Yu. & Fedyunina, A. & Pastukhova, P., 2025. "The impact of financial sanctions on countries' participation in global value chains: An assessment with the synthetic control method," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 151-172.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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