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On the Heterogeneous Trade and Welfare Effects of GATT/WTO Membership

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr

    (Kiel Institute & Kiel University)

  • Mario Larch

    (University of Bayreuth)

  • Erdal Yalcin

    (Konstanz University of Applied Sciences)

  • Yoto Yotov

    (School of Economics LeBow College of Business Drexel University)

Abstract

We build on the latest developments in the structural gravity literature to quantify the partial and general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 countries over the period 1980-2016, we find that the average impact of GATT/WTO membership on trade among member counties is large, positive, and significant. We contribute to the literature by estimating country-specific estimates and find them to vary widely across the countries in our sample with poorer members benefiting more. Using these estimates, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO on welfare, which are sizable and heterogeneous across members, and relatively small for non-member countries. We show that countries not experiencing positive trade effects from joining GATT/WTO can still gain in terms of welfare, due to beneficial terms-of-trade effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Erdal Yalcin & Yoto Yotov, 2020. "On the Heterogeneous Trade and Welfare Effects of GATT/WTO Membership," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-12, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2020_012
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Larch & Leandro Navarro, 2022. "Uncertainty in Global Sourcing: Learning, Sequential Offshoring, and Selection Patterns," CESifo Working Paper Series 10043, CESifo.
    2. Franco Bedoya,Sebastian, 2022. "Trade Agreements in South Asia : Towards a Successful Story in the Developing World," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10211, The World Bank.
    3. Mario Larch & José‐Antonio Monteiro & Roberta Piermartini & Yoto V. Yotov, 2025. "On the trade effects of GATT/WTO membership: They are positive and large after all," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(1), pages 281-328, February.
    4. Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Jacopo Timini & Francesca Viani, 2022. "A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 291-308.
    6. Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2023. "Unveiling the trade and welfare effects of regional services trade agreements: A structural gravity approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Jacopo Timini & Nicola Cortinovis & Fernando López Vicente, 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of trade agreements with labour provisions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2820-2853, September.
    8. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Geopolitical fragmentation and trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1289-1315.
    9. Natalie Chen & Dennis Novy, 2022. "Gravity and Heterogeneous Trade Cost Elasticities," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1349-1377.
    10. Rodolfo Campos & Mario Larch & Jacopo Timini & Elena Vidal & Yoto Yotov, 2024. "Does the WTO Promote Trade? A Meta-analysis," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2024-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    11. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Timini, Jacopo & Vidal, Elena, 2021. "Structural gravity and trade agreements: Does the measurement of domestic trade matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    12. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jacopo Timini, 2022. "Unequal trade, unequal gains: the heterogeneous impact of MERCOSUR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(49), pages 5655-5669, October.
    13. Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "The Variation of Gravity within Countries (or 15 Reasons Why Gravity Should Be Estimated with Domestic Trade Flows)," CESifo Working Paper Series 9057, CESifo.
    14. Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Trade-related food policies in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Kim, Dongin & Steinbach, Sandro, 2025. "The Impact of the WTO on Virtual Water Trade and Global Water Redistribution," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361029, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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