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Does the WTO Promote Trade? A Meta-analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rodolfo Campos

    (Banco de Espana)

  • Mario Larch

    (University of Bayreuth)

  • Jacopo Timini

    (Banco de Espana)

  • Elena Vidal

    (Banco de Espana)

  • Yoto Yotov

    (School of Economics, Drexel University)

Abstract

The World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), are key institutions of the multilateral trading system. While the WTO is expected to promote trade by reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers, existing estimates of its effect on trade vary widely in magnitude, sign, and significance. We collect 2,547 estimates from 71 papers and apply meta-analysis techniques to conduct a systematic quantitative review of the literature, complementing it with established advances in gravity models to obtain estimates of the WTO's impact on trade. The meta-analysis shows that, on average, the literature finds a significant and positive trade effect of the WTO, although the estimates depend strongly on study characteristics. Moreover, we find no evidence of publication bias. Our structural gravity estimates confirm these findings: the WTO increases trade. However, the effects are heterogeneous across sectors and income levels of trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolfo Campos & Mario Larch & Jacopo Timini & Elena Vidal & Yoto Yotov, 2025. "Does the WTO Promote Trade? A Meta-analysis," Working Papers 202505, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:drx:wpaper:202505
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    World Trade Organization; trade; gravity model; meta-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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