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Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia

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  • Florian Mölders

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  • Ulrich Volz

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Abstract

East Asia has been considered a latecomer with respect to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Since the turn of the last century, however, FTAs with East Asian participation have seen an intra- and extra-regional expansion. Many trade initiatives have been proposed, negotiated or even implemented. This introduces interesting perspectives for the analysis of trade agreements regarding their anticipatory trade effects. This paper focuses on the trade impact of FTAs at different stages that East Asian economies participate in. The central part of this study is an econometric analysis that applies panel data to the gravity model of international trade flows. We augment the traditional model with variables to estimate trade effects of bilateral and multilateral agreements and year-to-year changes in the stages of their implementation. Our results reveal that there exist anticipatory effects preceding the actual implementation of bilateral FTAs with East Asian participation. Further, anticipation effects are larger for bilateral than for multilateral agreements, possibly because the realisation of bilateral agreements is considered more realistic.
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  • Florian Mölders & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 429-456, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:147:y:2011:i:3:p:429-456
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-011-0095-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Csilla, Lakatos & Lars, Nilsson, 2015. "The EU-Korea free trade agreement: Anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2015-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    2. Brusselaers, Jan & Buysse, Jeroen, 2018. "Implementation of the EU-Cameroon Voluntary Partnership Agreement policy: Trade distortion, rent-seeking and anticipative behavior," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 167-179.
    3. Csilla Lakatos & Lars Nilsson, 2017. "The EU-Korea FTA: anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 179-198, February.
    4. Stender, Frederik & Berger, Axel & Brandi, Clara & Schwab, Jakob, 2020. "The trade effects of the economic partnership agreements between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific group of states: Early empirical insights from panel data," Discussion Papers 7/2020, German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE).
    5. Tristan Kohl, 2014. "Do we really know that trade agreements increase trade?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 443-469, August.
    6. Florian Mölders, 2012. "On the Path to Trade Liberalization: Political Regimes in International Trade Negotiations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1245, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso & Anca M. Voicu & Martina Vidovic, 2020. "Production networks in Europe: A natural experiment of the European Union enlargement to the east," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 1143-1163, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free Trade Agreements; Trade; East Asia; Gravity model; Panel data; F13;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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