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Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia

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  • Florian Mölders

    (DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

  • Ulrich Volz

    (German Development Institute - German Development Institute)

Abstract

East Asia has been considered a latecomer with respect to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Since the turn of the last century, however, FTAs with East Asian participation have seen an intra- and extra-regional expansion. Many trade initiatives have been proposed, negotiated or even implemented. This introduces interesting perspectives for the analysis of trade agreements regarding their anticipatory trade effects. This paper focuses on the trade impact of FTAs at different stages that East Asian economies participate in. The central part of this study is an econometric analysis that applies panel data to the gravity model of international trade flows. We augment the traditional model with variables to estimate trade effects of bilateral and multilateral agreements and year-to-year changes in the stages of their implementation. Our results reveal that there exist anticipatory effects preceding the actual implementation of bilateral FTAs with East Asian participation. Further, anticipation effects are larger for bilateral than for multilateral agreements, possibly because the realisation of bilateral agreements is considered more realistic.

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  • Florian Mölders & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia," Post-Print hal-00682332, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00682332
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-011-0095-9
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    2. Csilla, Lakatos & Lars, Nilsson, 2015. "The EU-Korea free trade agreement: Anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2015-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
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    4. Stender, Frederik & Berger, Axel & Brandi, Clara & Schwab, Jakob, 2020. "The trade effects of the economic partnership agreements between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific group of states: Early empirical insights from panel data," IDOS Discussion Papers 7/2020, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    5. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Voicu, Anca M. & Vidovic, Martina, 2020. "Production networks in Europe: A natural experiment of the EU enlargement to the east," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 390, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
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    7. Brusselaers, Jan & Buysse, Jeroen, 2018. "Implementation of the EU-Cameroon Voluntary Partnership Agreement policy: Trade distortion, rent-seeking and anticipative behavior," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 167-179.
    8. Florian Mölders, 2012. "On the Path to Trade Liberalization: Political Regimes in International Trade Negotiations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1245, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Tristan Kohl, 2014. "Do we really know that trade agreements increase trade?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 443-469, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free Trade Agreements; Trade; East Asia; Gravity model; Panel data; F13;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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