IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cnb/wpaper/2015-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Borders Really Slash Trade? A Meta-Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tomas Havranek
  • Zuzana Irsova

Abstract

National borders reduce trade, but most estimates of the border effect seem puzzlingly large. We show that major methodological innovations of the last decade combine to shrink the border effect to a one-third reduction in international trade flows worldwide. The border effect varies across regions: it is substantial in emerging countries, but relatively small in OECD countries. For the computation we collect 1,271 estimates of the border effect reported in 61 studies, codify 32 aspects of study design that may influence the estimates, and use Bayesian model averaging to take into account model uncertainty in meta-analysis. Our results suggest that methods systematically affect the estimated border effects. Especially important is the level of aggregation, measurement of internal and external distance, control for multilateral resistance, and treatment of zero trade flows. We find no evidence of publication bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2015. "Do Borders Really Slash Trade? A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 2015/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2015/01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2015_01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2010. "Picture This: A Simple Graph That Reveals Much Ado About Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 170-191, February.
    2. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:142-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
    4. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say “Probably Not”," Working Papers IES 2016/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2016.
    5. Gianluca Cafiso, 2011. "Sectoral border effects and the geographic concentration of production," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 543-566.
    6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    7. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
    8. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    9. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Time-Series Minimum-Wage Studies: A Meta-analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 238-243, May.
    10. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    11. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 238-249.
    12. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    13. Iršová, Zuzana & Havránek, Tomáš, 2013. "Determinants of Horizontal Spillovers from FDI: Evidence from a Large Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-15.
    14. Parsley, David C. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 87-105, October.
    15. T. D. Stanley, 2008. "Meta-Regression Methods for Detecting and Estimating Empirical Effects in the Presence of Publication Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, pages 103-127.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth S. Rogoff (ed.), 2001. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262523140, January.
    17. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    18. Feenstra, Robert C, 2002. "Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 491-506, December.
    19. James E. Anderson & Catherine A. Milot & Yoto V. Yotov, 2014. "How Much Does Geography Deflect Services Trade? Canadian Answers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 791-818, August.
    20. De Long, J Bradford & Lang, Kevin, 1992. "Are All Economic Hypotheses False?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1257-1272, December.
    21. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, July.
    22. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    23. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
    24. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern01-1, January.
    26. Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Intranational Home Bias In Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 555-563, November.
    27. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2011. "Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 234-244.
    28. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2000. "Non-Europe: The magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 284-314.
    30. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 471-475.
    31. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    32. Russell H. Hillberry, 2002. "Aggregation bias, compositional change, and the border effect," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 517-530, August.
    33. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited; On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 09/202, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Editorial in "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 1-4 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    36. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    37. Volker Nitsch, 2000. "National borders and international trade: evidence from the European Union," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1091-1105, November.
    38. Feenstra, Robert & Luck, Philip & Obstfeld, Maurice & Russ, Katheryn N., 2014. "In Search of the Armington Elasticity," CEPR Discussion Papers 9951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Baldwin, Richard, 2007. "Trade Effects of the Euro: a Comparison of Estimators," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 780-818.
    40. Balistreri, Edward J. & Hillberry, Russell H., 2007. "Structural estimation and the border puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 451-463, July.
    41. John J. Siegfried, 2012. "Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee: Chicago, IL, April 15, 2011," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 637-644, May.
    42. Michael Anderson & Stephen Smith, 1999. "Canadian Provinces in World Trade: Engagement and Detachment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 22-38, February.
    43. Gorg, Holger & Strobl, Eric, 2001. "Multinational Companies and Productivity Spillovers: A Meta-analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 723-739, November.
    44. John J. Siegfried, 2012. "Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee: Chicago, IL, January 5, 2012," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 645-652, May.
    45. T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer.
    46. Chris Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2013. "Are All Economic Facts Greatly Exaggerated? Theory Competition And Selectivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 316-339, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:142-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dominika Reckova & Zuzana Irsova, 2015. "Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change," Energy & Environment, , vol. 26(5), pages 853-862, September.
    3. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2016. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 134-151.
    4. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kočenda, Evžen, 2017. "Are some owners better than others in Czech privatized firms? Even meta-analysis can’t make us perfectly sure," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 537-568.
    5. Anton Astakhov & Tomas Havranek & Jiri Novak, 2017. "Firm Size and Stock Returns: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2017/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2017.
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nguyen Van, Phuong, 2014. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuation in Vietnam: an application of the SVAR model," MPRA Paper 60565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Diana Zigraiova & Tomas Havranek, 2016. "Bank Competition And Financial Stability: Much Ado About Nothing?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 944-981, December.
    9. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    10. Gunby, Philip & Jin, Yinghua & Robert Reed, W., 2017. "Did FDI Really Cause Chinese Economic Growth? A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 242-255.
    11. Reed, W. Robert, 2015. "A Monte Carlo analysis of alternative meta-analysis estimators in the presence of publication bias," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 9, pages 1-40.
    12. repec:wly:econjl:v::y:2017:i:605:p:f236-f265 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Tomas Vlach, 2017. "Measuring the Income Elasticity of Water Demand: The Importance of Publication and Endogeneity Biases," Working Papers IES 2017/02, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2017.
    14. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Volha Audzei & Jakub Mateju & Michal Kejak & Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, 2016. "Financial Cycles and Macroprudential and Monetary Policies," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 14, number rb14/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek, June.
    16. Dominika Reckova & Zuzana Irsova, 2015. "Publication Bias in Measuring Climate Sensitivity," Working Papers IES 2015/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian model averaging; bilateral trade; borders; gravity; meta-analysis; publication selection bias;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2015/01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cnbgvcz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.