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Publication Bias in Measuring Intertemporal Substitution

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Abstract

I examine 2,735 estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (EIS) reported in 169 published studies. The literature shows strong publication bias: researchers report negative and insignificant estimates less often than they should, which pulls the mean estimate up by about 0.5. When I correct the mean for the bias, for macro estimates I get zero, even though the reported t - statistics are on average two. The corrected mean of micro estimates for asset holders is around 0.3–0.4. Calibrations of the EIS greater than 0.8 are inconsistent with the bulk of the empirical evidence.

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  • Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Publication Bias in Measuring Intertemporal Substitution," Working Papers IES 2013/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2013_15
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    1. Meta-analysis of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-12-11 20:22:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman & Scobie, Grant, 2015. "Pensions, savings and housing: A life-cycle framework with policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 346-357.
    2. Dominika Reckova & Zuzana Irsova, 2015. "Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change," Energy & Environment, , vol. 26(5), pages 853-862, September.
    3. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 100-118.
    4. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2017. "Hopf Bifurcation from new-Keynesian Taylor rule to Ramsey Optimal Policy," EconStor Preprints 158001, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    5. Adrien Auclert, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," 2015 Meeting Papers 381, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Branger, Frédéric & Quirion, Philippe, 2014. "Would border carbon adjustments prevent carbon leakage and heavy industry competitiveness losses? Insights from a meta-analysis of recent economic studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, pages 29-39.
    7. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 100-118.
    8. Dominika Reckova & Zuzana Irsova, 2015. "Publication Bias in Measuring Climate Sensitivity," Working Papers IES 2015/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2015.

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    Keywords

    Elasticity of intertemporal substitution; consumption; publication bias; meta-analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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