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Publication Bias in Measuring Intertemporal Substitution

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Abstract

I examine 2,735 estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (EIS) reported in 169 published studies. The literature shows strong publication bias: researchers report negative and insignificant estimates less often than they should, which pulls the mean estimate up by about 0.5. When I correct the mean for the bias, for macro estimates I get zero, even though the reported t - statistics are on average two. The corrected mean of micro estimates for asset holders is around 0.3–0.4. Calibrations of the EIS greater than 0.8 are inconsistent with the bulk of the empirical evidence.

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  • Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Publication Bias in Measuring Intertemporal Substitution," Working Papers IES 2013/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2013_15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meta-analysis of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-12-11 20:22:00

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    Keywords

    Elasticity of intertemporal substitution; consumption; publication bias; meta-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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