IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp2016_15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say “Probably Not”

Author

Listed:
  • Tomas Havranek

    () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    Czech National Bank)

  • Anna Sokolova

    () (Higher School of Economics, Moscow)

Abstract

We show that three factors combine to explain the mean excess sensitivity reported in studies estimating consumption Euler equations: the use of macro data, publication bias, and liquidity constraints. When micro data are used, publication bias is corrected for, and the households under examination do not face liquidity constraints, the literature implies no evidence for the excess sensitivity of consumption to income. Hence little remains for pure rule-of-thumb behavior. The results hold when we control for 45 additional variables reflecting the methods employed by researchers and use Bayesian model averaging to account for model uncertainty. The estimates of excess sensitivity are also systematically affected by the order of approximation of the Euler equation, the treatment of non-separability between consumption and leisure, and the choice of proxy for consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say “Probably Not”," Working Papers IES 2016/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2016_15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/sci/publication/show/id/5498/lang/cs
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2012. "The impact of data revisions on the robustness of growth determinants—a note on ‘determinants of economic growth: Will data tell?’," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 686-694, June.
    2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    3. Sefton, J A & In't Veld, J W, 1999. "Consumption and Wealth: An International Comparison," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(4), pages 525-544, September.
    4. Garcia, Rene & Lusardi, Annamaria & Ng, Serena, 1997. "Excess Sensitivity and Asymmetries in Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 154-176, May.
    5. Martin Feldkircher, 2012. "Forecast Combination and Bayesian Model Averaging: A Prior Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 361-376, July.
    6. Shea, John, 1995. "Union Contracts and the Life-Cycle/Permanent-Income Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 186-200, March.
    7. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
    8. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    9. Primiceri, Giorgio E. & van Rens, Thijs, 2009. "Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 20-39, January.
    10. Motohiro Yogo, 2004. "Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution When Instruments Are Weak," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 797-810, August.
    11. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    12. Evan F. Koenig, 1990. "Real Money Balances and the Timing of Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 399-425.
    13. Richard Blundell & Martin Browning & Costas Meghir, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80.
    14. Tony S. Wirjanto, 1995. "Aggregate Consumption Behaviour and Liquidity Constraints: The Canadian Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4b), pages 1135-1152, November.
    15. Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Inattentive consumers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November.
    16. Yaprak Tutun & Martin J. Murray, 2008. "Evil Paradises: Dreamworlds of Neoliberalism ‐ Edited by MIKE DAVIS & DANIEL BERTRAND MONK and Planet of Slums ‐ By MIKE DAVIS," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 99(5), pages 643-646, December.
    17. Park, Jungsoo, 2004. "International student flows and R&D spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 315-320, March.
    18. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    19. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2008. "Limited asset markets participation, monetary policy and (inverted) aggregate demand logic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 162-196, May.
    20. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2013. "Does Indivisible Labor Explain the Difference between Micro and Macro Elasticities? A Meta-Analysis of Extensive Margin Elasticities," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-56.
    21. Carroll Christopher Dixon, 2001. "Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation)," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
    22. Joseph De Juan & John Seater, 1997. "A Cross-country Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 451-468.
    23. Shea, John, 1995. "Myopia, Liquidity Constraints, and Aggregate Consumption: A Simple Test," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 798-805, August.
    24. Gabriela Lopes de Castro, 2006. "Consumption, Disposable Income and Liquidity Constraints," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    25. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "Social Security Benefits, Consumption Expenditure, and the Life Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 288-304, April.
    26. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2004. "Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 304-320, December.
    27. Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2000. "Using subjective income expectations to test for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 337-358, February.
    28. Oriana Bandiera & Gerard Caprio & Patrick Honohan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2000. "Does Financial Reform Raise or Reduce Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 239-263, May.
    29. Lorenzo Pozzi & Freddy Heylen & Maarten Dossche, 2004. "Government Debt and Excess Sensitivity of Private Consumption: Estimates from OECD Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 618-633, October.
    30. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 566-579, May.
    31. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    32. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Soyoung Kim, 2008. "Incomplete Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing and Incomplete Risk Sharing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1521-1531, October.
    33. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    34. Joon-Ho Hahm & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1999. "Consumption Adjustment under Time-Varying Income Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 32-40, February.
    35. Madsen, Jakob B. & Mcaleer, Michael, 2000. "Direct Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis under Uncertainty, Inflationary Expectations and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 229-252, April.
    36. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    37. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
    38. Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2011. "International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1135-1145, November.
    39. DeJuan, Joseph P. & J. Seater, John, 1999. "The permanent income hypothesis:: Evidence from the consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 351-376, April.
    40. Xin Chen & Yuhan Zhang & Sean X. Zhou, 2010. "Technical Note ---Preservation of Quasi- K -Concavity and Its Applications," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-1), pages 1012-1016, August.
    41. John Muellbauer, 1988. "Habits, Rationality and Myopia in the Life Cycle Consumption Function," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 9, pages 47-70.
    42. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    43. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-1157, December.
    44. Philip E. Auerswald & Lewis M. E. Branscomb, 2005. "Reflections on Mansfield, Technological Complexity, and the "Golden Age" of U.S. Corporate R&D," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 30(2_2), pages 139-157, January.
    45. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    46. María José Luengo-Prado & Bent E. Sørensen, 2008. "What Can Explain Excess Smoothness and Sensitivity of State-Level Consumption?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 65-80, February.
    47. Jose Luengo-Prado, Maria, 2006. "Durables, nondurables, down payments and consumption excesses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1509-1539, October.
    48. Hahm, Joon-Ho, 1998. "Consumption adjustment to real interest rates: Intertemporal substitution revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 293-320, February.
    49. Khalid Khan & Manzoor H Memon Che, 2012. "The Testing of Hall‘s Permanent Income Hypothesis: A Case Study of Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(4), pages 518-522, August.
    50. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2003. "Disaggregate Wealth and Aggregate Consumption: an Investigation of Empirical Relationships for the G7," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(2), pages 197-220, May.
    51. Chris Carroll & Wendy Dunn, 1997. "Unemployment Expectations, Jumping (S,s) Triggers, and Household Balance Sheets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 165-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Manuela Deidda, 2014. "Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: evidence from Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 329-360, February.
    53. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guang Hua, 2002. "Household consumption and monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-52.
    54. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 1993. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 631-649.
    55. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    56. Gesteira Costa, Marcos & Carrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique, 2015. "Testing the Optimality of Consumption Decisions of the Representative Household: Evidence from Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 69(3), September.
    57. Antzoulatos, Angelos A., 1997. "On the Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Information about Income," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 539-553, July.
    58. Abel Brodeur & Mathias Lé & Marc Sangnier & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, January.
    59. Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Peter Smith & W. N. W. Azman-Saini, 2006. "Testing liquidity constraints in 10 Asian developing countries: an error-correction model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2535-2543.
    60. Michael T. Kiley, 2010. "Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 679-683, August.
    61. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-127, March.
    62. Irwin Feller, 2007. "Mapping the frontiers of evaluation of public-sector R&D programs," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(10), pages 681-690, December.
    63. Johnson, Will, 2006. "The risk assessment wars: A commentary: Response to "Evaluating the effectiveness of actuarial risk assessment models" by Donald Baumann, J. Randolph Law, Janess Sheets, Grant Reid, and J. C," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 704-714, June.
    64. Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 2009. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression This article was published online on 30 March 2009. An error was subsequently identified. This not," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 651-674.
    65. Joseph G. Altonji & Aloysius Siow, 1987. "Testing the Response of Consumption to Income Changes with (Noisy) Panel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(2), pages 293-328.
    66. Attanasio, Orazio P & Browning, Martin, 1995. "Consumption over the Life Cycle and over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1118-1137, December.
    67. Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 959-973, September.
    68. Yin Zhang & Guang Hua Wan, 2004. "Liquidity constraint, uncertainty and household consumption in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2221-2229.
    69. repec:asi:aeafrj:2012:p:445-449 is not listed on IDEAS
    70. Collado, M Dolores, 1998. "Separability and Aggregate Shocks in the Life-Cycle Model of Consumption: Evidence from Spain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(2), pages 227-247, May.
    71. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    72. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    73. Beaudry, Paul & van Wincoop, Eric, 1996. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: An Exploration Using a US Panel of State Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 495-512, August.
    74. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    75. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    76. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis and Consumption Durability: Analysis Based on Japanese Panel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1083-1113.
    77. Bach, L & Cohendet, P & Schenk, E, 2002. "Technological Transfers from the European Space Programs: A Dynamic View and Comparison with Other R&D Projects," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 321-338, December.
    78. Benito, Andrew & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2009. "Excess Sensitivity, Liquidity Constraints, And The Collateral Role Of Housing," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 305-326, June.
    79. Francesco Furlanetto & Martin Seneca, 2012. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers, Productivity, and Hours," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 658-679, June.
    80. Yih-Luan Chyi & Chao-Hsi Huang, 1997. "An empirical study of the 'rule of thumb' consumption model in five East Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1271-1282.
    81. Tamim Bayoumi & Ronald Macdonald, 1995. "Consumption, Income, and International Capital Market Integration," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 552-576, September.
    82. Van Dalen, Hendrik P., 1995. "Intertemporal substitution in war and peace: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1830-1990," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 447-469.
    83. Bertrand, Olivier & Zuniga, Pluvia, 2006. "R&D and M&A: Are cross-border M&A different? An investigation on OECD countries," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 401-423, March.
    84. Gary H. Jefferson & Zhong Kaifeng, 2002. "An Investigation of Firm-Level R&D Capabilities in East Asia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 583, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    85. Ribeiro, M.J., 2000. "A Nonscale Growth Model with R&D and Human Capital Accumulation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 574, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    86. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    87. César Bravo Cervantes & Carlos Alberto Gómez Prado & Rosa Vega Cano, 2012. "Efectos de la relación comercial México-China en la ciudad y Puerto de Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán," Observatorio de la Economía Latinoamericana, Grupo Eumed.net (Universidad de Málaga), issue 176, December.
    88. Valdemar Smith & Mogens Dilling-Hansen & Tor Eriksson & Erik Strøjer Madsen, 2004. "R&D and productivity in Danish firms: some empirical evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1797-1806.
    89. Cheolbeom Park & Pei Fang Lim, 2004. "Excess sensitivity of consumption, liquidity constraints, and mandatory saving," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 771-774.
    90. Limosani, Michele & Millemaci, Emanuele, 2011. "Evidence on excess sensitivity of consumption to predictable income growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 71-77, June.
    91. Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks: Evidence from Automobile Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 403-436, June.
    92. Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-481, March.
    93. Brahima Coulibaly & Geng Li, 2006. "Do Homeowners Increase Consumption after the Last Mortgage Payment? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 10-19, February.
    94. De Long, J Bradford & Lang, Kevin, 1992. "Are All Economic Hypotheses False?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1257-1272, December.
    95. Jürgen Maurer & André Meier, 2008. "Smooth it Like the “Joneses?†Estimating Peer-Group Effects in Intertemporal Consumption Choice," MEA discussion paper series 08167, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    96. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou, 2000. "Sensitivity of consumption to income and to government purchases: some specification and estimation issues," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 767-775.
    97. Tony S. Wirjanto, 1991. "Testing the Permanent Income Hypothesis: The Evidence from Canadian Data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(3), pages 563-577, August.
    98. Charles R. Bean, 1986. "The Estimation of "Surprise" Models and the "Surprise" Consumption Function," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 497-516.
    99. J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May.
    100. PAPATULICA, Mariana & PRISECARU, Petre, 2013. "Dinamica energiilor regenerabile în UE si România," Studii Economice 130220, National Institute of Economic Research.
    101. Alessandra Guariglia, 2002. "Consumption, habit formation, and precautionary saving: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 1-19, January.
    102. Kohara, Miki & Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2006. "Do borrowing constraints matter? An analysis of why the permanent income hypothesis does not apply in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 358-377, December.
    103. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2006. "Intertemporal Choice and Consumption Mobility," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 75-115, March.
    104. Graham, Fred C, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 659-666, June.
    105. Harvey, Campbell R & Whaley, Robert E, 1991. " S&P 100 Index Option Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1251-1261, September.
    106. Sommer Martin, 2007. "Habit Formation and Aggregate Consumption Dynamics," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, August.
    107. K. H. McIntyre, 2007. "Reconciling Consumer Confidence and Permanent Income Consumption," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 257-275, Spring.
    108. William Kerr & Shihe Fu, 2006. "The Industry R&D Survey: Patent Database Link Project," Working Papers 06-28, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    109. John Bound & Clint Cummins & Zvi Griliches & Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe, 1984. "Who Does R&D and Who Patents?," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 21-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    110. Souleles, Nicholas S., 2002. "Consumer response to the Reagan tax cuts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-120, July.
    111. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2003. "Liquidity constraints, precautionary saving and aggregate consumption: an international comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1151-1173, December.
    112. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 2003. "Do Consumers React to Anticipated Income Changes? Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 397-405, March.
    113. F. Alejandro Villagomez, 1997. "Private saving, interest rates and liquidity constraints in LDCs: recent evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 607-615.
    114. Engelhardt, Gary V, 1996. "Consumption, Down Payments, and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 255-271, May.
    115. Yates, JoAnne, 1951- & Orlikowski, Wanda J. & Okamura, Kazuo., 1995. "Explicit and implicit structuring of genres : electronic communication in a Japanese R&D organization," Working papers 3809-95., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    116. Aschauer, David Alan, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 667-669, June.
    117. Necker, Sarah, 2014. "Scientific misbehavior in economics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(10), pages 1747-1759.
    118. Edward L. Glaeser, 2006. "Researcher Incentives and Empirical Methods," NBER Technical Working Papers 0329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    119. Natacha Postel-Vinay, 2015. "Ronnie J. Phillips , ed., US credits and payments, 1800–1935, vol. I: building and loan associations ( London : Pickering & Chatto , 2013 . Pp. xxxiii + 267. ISBN 9781848932944a Hbk. £275, vols. 1–3 )," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(3), pages 1096-1098, August.
    120. Melvin Stephens, 2008. "The Consumption Response to Predictable Changes in Discretionary Income: Evidence from the Repayment of Vehicle Loans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 241-252, May.
    121. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
    122. Eric Girardin & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2000. "Private consumption behaviour, liquidity constraints and financial deregulation in France: a nonlinear analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 351-368.
    123. Hatzinikolaou, Dimitris, 1999. "Modelling consumption: permanent-income or rule-of-thumb behaviour?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 293-306, April.
    124. Alan Viard, 1997. "How forecastable is consumption growth? New evidence on the Hall random walk hypothesis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(11), pages 1435-1446.
    125. Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
    126. N. Gregory Mankiw & Julio J. Rotemberg & Lawrence H. Summers, 1985. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(1), pages 225-251.
    127. Weber, Christian E, 2000. ""Rule-of-Thumb" Consumption, Intertemporal Substitution, and Risk Aversion," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 497-502, October.
    128. Andre Minella & Andrew Powell & Alessandro Rebucci & Nelson Souza-Sobrino, 2009. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for the Perfect Storm: The Case of The Bahamas, Barbados, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Suriname, and Trinidad & Tobago," Research Department Publications 4638, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    129. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-415, August.
    130. Yaacov Lavi, 2003. "Do Changes In Current Income Help To Explain Changes In Consumption In Israel?," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 1(2), pages 113-135.
    131. Weber, Christian E., 2002. "Intertemporal non-separability and "rule of thumb" consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 293-308, March.
    132. Tamim Bayoumi, 1997. "Explaining Consumption: A Simple Test of Alternative Hypotheses," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 462-484, December.
    133. Runkle, David E., 1991. "Liquidity constraints and the permanent-income hypothesis : Evidence from panel data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 73-98, February.
    134. Tullio Jappelli & Joern-Steffen Pischke & Nicholas S. Souleles, "undated". "Testing for Liquidity Constraints in Euler Equations with Complementary Data Sources (Reprint 069)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 10-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    135. Antzoulatos, Angelos A., 1994. "Borrowing constraints, income expectations and the Euler equation : Theory and evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 323-327.
    136. Filer, Larry & Fisher, Jonathan D., 2007. "Do liquidity constraints generate excess sensitivity in consumption? New evidence from a sample of post-bankruptcy households," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 790-805, December.
    137. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    138. Lage, Maureen J., 1991. "Sensitivity of tests of the PIH to alternative consumption proxies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 429-433, August.
    139. repec:adr:anecst:y:1988:i:9:p:03 is not listed on IDEAS
    140. Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2012. "Pre-announcement and timing: The effects of a government expenditure shock," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 373-388.
    141. Berloffa, Gabriella, 1997. "Temporary and Permanent Changes in Consumption Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 345-358, March.
    142. repec:fth:jonhop:386 is not listed on IDEAS
    143. Cavalcanti, Carlos B., 1993. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption: An American Investigation for Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 13(2), November.
    144. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    145. Jürgen Maurer & André Meier, 2008. "Smooth it Like the 'Joneses'? Estimating Peer-Group Effects in Intertemporal Consumption Choice," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 454-476, March.
    146. Jin Xu & Dongmin Kong, 2015. "Understanding The Household Consumption Behavior In Urban China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 60(05), pages 1-21, December.
    147. Jayasri Dutta & Martin Weale, 2001. "Consumption and the Means of Payment: An Empirical Analysis for the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(271), pages 293-316, August.
    148. Blake, Andon & Campbell, Gary A., 2007. "Conflict over flying fish: The dispute between Trinidad & Tobago and Barbados," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 327-335, May.
    149. Zeugner, Stefan & Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i04).
    150. Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Consumption And Credit: A Model Of Time-Varying Liquidity Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 434-447, August.
    151. Felipa de Mello-Sampayo & Sofia de Sousa-Vale & Francisco Camões & Orlando Gomes, 2012. "Protectionism under R&D policy: innovation rate and welfare," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 106-124, January.
    152. Vei-Lin Chan & Sheng-Cheng Hu, 1997. "Financial liberalization and aggregate consumption: the evidence from Taiwan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(11), pages 1525-1535.
    153. Weber, Christian E, 1998. "Consumption Spending and the Paper-Bill Spread: Theory and Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 575-589, October.
    154. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1998. "Liquidity Constraints and the Substitutability between Private and Government Consumption: The Role of Military and Non-military Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 203-214, April.
    155. Benedetto Lepori, 2009. "ERAWATCH Country Reports 2009: Switzerland. Analysis of Policy Mixes to Foster R&D Investment and to Contribute to the ERA," JRC Working Papers JRC53723, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    156. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, João Victor, 1993. "Common trends and common cycles in Latin America," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 47(2), April.
    157. Elliot W. Martin & Yash P. Mehra, 2003. "Why does consumer sentiment predict household spending?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 89(Fall), pages 51-67.
    158. Agell, Jonas & Berg, Lennart, 1996. " Does Financial Deregulation Cause a Consumption Boom?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 579-601, December.
    159. João Vieito & Walayet Khan, 2012. "Executive compensation and gender: S&P 1500 listed firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 371-399, April.
    160. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "Does Buffer-Stock Saving Explain the Smoothness and Excess Sensitivity of Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 631-647, June.
    161. Patterson, Kerry D & Pesaran, Bahram, 1992. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution in Consumption in the United States and the United Kingdom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 573-584, November.
    162. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "A Simple Test of Consumption Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 957-976, October.
    163. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    164. Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "Consumption and credit constraints: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 207-238, October.
    165. Ben S. Bernanke, 1984. "Permanent Income, Liquidity, and Expenditure on Automobiles: Evidence from Panel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(3), pages 587-614.
    166. Ni, Shawn & Seol, Youn, 2014. "New evidence on excess sensitivity of household consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 80-94.
    167. Slesnick, Daniel T, 1998. "Are Our Data Relevant to the Theory? The Case of Aggregate Consumption Expenditures, and Empirical Consumption and Savings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 52-61, January.
    168. Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 947-958, September.
    169. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1982. "Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 417-425.
    170. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2010. "House prices, collateral constraint, and the asymmetric effect on consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 26-37, March.
    171. Gerdie Everaert & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2014. "The Predictability Of Aggregate Consumption Growth In Oecd Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 431-453, April.
    172. James A. Turner, 2015. "Casting Doubt on the Predictability of Stock Returns in Real Time: Bayesian Model Averaging using Realistic Priors," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 785-821.
    173. Korniotis, George M., 2010. "Estimating Panel Models With Internal and External Habit Formation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 145-158.
    174. Marjorie Flavin, 1985. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-136, February.
    175. Cushing, Matthew J, 1992. "Liquidity Constraints and Aggregate Consumption Behavior," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(1), pages 134-153, January.
    176. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1996. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption: Evidence from Two Panel Data Sets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 81-90, January.
    177. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
    178. repec:adr:anecst:y:1988:i:9 is not listed on IDEAS
    179. Chris Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2013. "Are All Economic Facts Greatly Exaggerated? Theory Competition And Selectivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 316-339, April.
    180. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2011. "Financial Integration and Consumption Smoothing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(553), pages 678-706, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    2. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2016. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 134-151.
    3. Ni, Niannian & Liu, Yulin, 2019. "Financial liberalization and income inequality: A meta-analysis based on cross-country studies," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2017. "Do Borders Really Slash Trade? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 365-396, June.
    5. Brodeur, Abel & Blanco-Perez, Cristina, 2017. "Publication Bias and Editorial Statement on Negative Findings," MetaArXiv xq9nt, Center for Open Science.
    6. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kočenda, Evžen, 2017. "Are some owners better than others in Czech privatized firms? Even meta-analysis can’t make us perfectly sure," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 537-568.
    7. Sokolova, Anna & Sorensen, Todd A., 2018. "Monopsony in Labor Markets: A Meta-Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 11966, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Ichiro Iwasaki & Kazuhiro Kumo, 2019. "J-Curve in Transition Economies: A Large Meta-analysis of the Determinants of Output Changes," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(1), pages 149-191, March.
    9. Steel, Mark F. J., 2017. "Model Averaging and its Use in Economics," MPRA Paper 81568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Brodeur, Abel & Cook, Nikolai & Heyes, Anthony, 2018. "Methods Matter: P-Hacking and Causal Inference in Economics," IZA Discussion Papers 11796, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Maria, Ferrara & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2019. "Disinflation, Inequality and Welfare in a TANK Model," Working Papers 402, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2019.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Excess sensitivity; rule-of-thumb consumers; liquidity constraints; publication bias; Bayesian model averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2016_15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.