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Determinants Of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach

Due to model uncertainty, there is no consensus about which are the most salient determinants of economic growth. To address model uncertainty, Bayesian Model Averaging approaches have recently been used in cross-country cross-sectional analyses. This paper extends these approaches to panel data models with country specific fixed effects. We find that when using this approach the strongest evidence of robustness is for the trade openness, the size of the labor force, the government consumption level and the Latin America dummy. Moreover, our results are robust to different prior assumptions on the expected model size.

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Paper provided by CEMFI in its series Working Papers with number wp2007_0719.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2007_0719
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  1. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2007. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4238, The World Bank.
  2. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  3. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, EconWPA, revised 06 Oct 2001.
  5. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
  6. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  7. Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 04/68, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  9. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
  10. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," Working Papers 1009, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  11. Durlauf,S.N. & Johnson,P.A. & Temple,J.R.W., 2004. "Growth econometrics," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  12. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, 07.
  13. Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2005. "Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty; Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 05/18, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  15. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  16. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
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