IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Determinants of economic growth: Will data tell?

Many factors inhibiting and facilitating economic growth have been suggested. Can agnostics rely on international income data to tell them which matter? We find that agnostic priors lead to conclusions that are sensitive to differences across available income estimates. For example, the PWT 6.2 revision of the 1960-96 income estimates in the PWT 6.1 leads to substantial changes regarding the role of government, international trade, demography, and geography. We conclude that margins of error in international income estimates appear too large for agnostic growth empirics.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/1052.pdf
File Function: Whole Paper
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1052.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision: Sep 2009
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1052
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
  3. Frank Kleibergen & Herman K. van Dijk, 1998. "Bayesian Simultaneous Equations Analysis using Reduced Rank Structures," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-025/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2007. "Are any Growth Theories Robust?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 2-2007, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  5. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F J Steel, 1998. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 26, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  6. Hendry, David F & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 105, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2005. "Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 05/18, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA.
  9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schleicher, Christoph & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2009. "Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 280-305, March.
  10. Kleibergen, F.R. & Paap, R., 1998. "Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9821, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  11. Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara, 2004. "Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 10313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
  13. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, June.
  14. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  17. Commission on Growth and Development, 2008. "The Growth Report : Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6507, June.
  18. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  19. J. Peter Neary, 2004. "Rationalizing the Penn World Table: True Multilateral Indices for International Comparisons of Real Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1411-1428, December.
  20. Theo Eicher & Chris Papageogiou & Adrian E Raftery, 2007. "Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging, with Application to Growth Determinants," Working Papers UWEC-2007-25-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  21. Barro, Robert J, 1996. " Democracy and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-27, March.
  22. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2006. "Real Time Representations of the Output Gap," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0619, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  23. Zellner, Arnold, 2002. "Information processing and Bayesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 41-50, March.
  24. Steve Dowrick, 2005. "The Penn World Table: A Review," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(2), pages 223-228, 06.
  25. Angus Deaton & Alan Heston, 2008. "Understanding PPPs and PPP-based national accounts," NBER Working Papers 14499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Simon Johnson & William Larson & Chris Papageorgiou & Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates," Working Papers 191, Center for Global Development.
  27. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
  28. Alberto Alesina & Arnaud Devleeschauwer & William Easterly & Sergio Kurlat & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Fractionalization," NBER Working Papers 9411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Banks Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(2), pages 135-156, June.
  30. Neary, J Peter, 2000. "True Multilateral Indexes for International Comparisons of Real Income: Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  32. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2006. "Real Time Representation of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Trend Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0618, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  33. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni & Banca d'Italia), 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  34. J. David Baldwin & Ronald L. Oaxaca, 2003. "Editors' Introduction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 7-7, May.
  35. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
  36. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2012. "Is God in the details? A reexamination of the role of religion in economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1059-1075, November.
  37. Adam Przeworski & Fernando Limongi, 1993. "Political Regimes and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 51-69, Summer.
  38. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2007. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4238, The World Bank.
  39. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13890, June.
  40. Dowrick, Steve & Quiggin, John, 1997. "True Measures of GDP and Convergence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 41-64, March.
  41. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
  42. S. Fukuda-Parr, 2003. "Editor's Introduction," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 323-324.
  43. Jones, Charles I., 1994. "Economic growth and the relative price of capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 359-382, December.
  44. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited: On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 09/202, International Monetary Fund.
  45. R. Kanbur & A.J. Venables, 2003. "Editors' Introduction:," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(4), pages 473-475, December.
  46. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  47. Heston, Alan, 1994. "A brief review of some problems in using national accounts data in level of output comparisons and growth studies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-52, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:

  1. Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell? (AEJ:MA 2010) in ReplicationWiki

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.