IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics

  • Magnus, Jan R.
  • Powell, Owen
  • Prüfer, Patricia

Parameter estimation under model uncertainty is a difficult and fundamental issue in econometrics. This paper compares the performance of various model averaging techniques. In particular, it contrasts Bayesian model averaging (BMA) -- currently one of the standard methods used in growth empirics -- with a new method called weighted-average least squares (WALS). The new method has two major advantages over BMA: its computational burden is trivial and it is based on a transparent definition of prior ignorance. The theory is applied to and sheds new light on growth empirics where a high degree of model uncertainty is typically present.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VC0-4WY142T-1/2/047b986696d6437c5a139851daa2be39
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 154 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 139-153

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:154:y:2010:i:2:p:139-153
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Doppelhofer, G. & Cuaresma, J.C., 2007. "Nonlinearities in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Durlauf,S.N. & Johnson,P.A. & Temple,J.R.W., 2004. "Growth econometrics," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  3. Roberto Leon Gonzalez & Daniel Montolio Estivill, 2003. "Growth, Convergence and Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers in Economics 106, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  4. Barro, Robert J., 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Scholarly Articles 3451297, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 476-493, September.
  6. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America : The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Discussion Paper 2008-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Carmen Fernandez & E Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2004. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian models averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  9. repec:dgr:kubcen:200861 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Theo Eicher & Christian Henn & Chris Papageorgiou, 2010. "Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects," Working Papers UWEC-2007-18-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  11. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, EconWPA, revised 06 Oct 2001.
  12. StevenN. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & ChihMing Tan, 2008. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 329-346, 03.
  13. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2005. "Empirics of growth and Development," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 8-2005, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  14. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  15. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
  17. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  18. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  19. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  21. Carlos Leite & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2002. "Is Growth Enough? Macroeconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction," IMF Working Papers 02/118, International Monetary Fund.
  22. De Long, J Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502, May.
  23. Hjort N.L. & Claeskens G., 2003. "Frequentist Model Average Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 879-899, January.
  24. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, 07.
  25. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993. "International comparisons of educational attainment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
  26. Theo Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Oliver Röhn, 2007. "Unraveling the Fortunates of the Fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 1907, CESifo Group Munich.
  27. Danilov, Dmitry & Magnus, J.R.Jan R., 2004. "On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 27-46, September.
  28. Jan R. Magnus & J. Durbin, 1999. "Estimation of Regression Coefficients of Interest When Other Regression Coefficients Are of No Interest," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 639-644, May.
  29. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  30. Jan R. Magnus, 2002. "Estimation of the mean of a univariate normal distribution with known variance," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 225-236, June.
  31. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
  32. Dmitry Danilov, 2005. "Estimation of the mean of a univariate normal distribution when the variance is not known," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 277-291, December.
  33. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:154:y:2010:i:2:p:139-153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.