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Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions

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  • Eriṣ, Mehmet N.
  • Ulaṣan, Bülent

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the robustness of the relationship between trade openness and long-run economic growth over the sample period 1960–2000, utilising Bayesian model averaging techniques to account for model uncertainty issues in a systematic manner. We find no evidence that trade openness is directly and robustly correlated with economic growth in the long run. We further check the robustness of this finding by employing a battery of proxies for trade openness, namely, current openness, real openness, the fraction of open years based on the Sachs and Warner (1995) criteria and the weighted averages of tariff rates, non-tariff barriers and the black market premium. The main result is robust to the inclusion of different trade openness proxies and none of the proxies is robustly associated with economic growth. The data evidence also indicates that economic institutions and macroeconomic uncertainties such as those induced by high inflation and excess government consumption are key factors in explaining economic growth.

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  • Eriṣ, Mehmet N. & Ulaṣan, Bülent, 2013. "Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 867-883.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:867-883
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.05.014
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    1. repec:eee:appene:v:211:y:2018:i:c:p:1229-1244 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Azimi, Mohammad Naim, 2016. "An economic growth model: Evaluating the interaction of market consumption with GDP growth rate in Afghanistan," MPRA Paper 69517, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jan 2016.
    3. Hakimi, Abdelaziz & Hamdi, Helmi, 2016. "Trade liberalization, FDI inflows, environmental quality and economic growth: A comparative analysis between Tunisia and Morocco," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1445-1456.
    4. Malefane, Malefa Rose & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2018. "Impact of trade openness on economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 23654, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    5. Hlalefang Khobai & Nomahlubi Mavikela, 2017. "The causal linkage between trade openness and economic growth in Argentina: Evidence from the ARDL and VECM techniques," Working Papers 1712, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Oct 2017.
    6. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2018. "Analysing the Sources of Growth in an Emerging Market Economy: The Thailand Experience," MPRA Paper 86337, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Amri, Fethi, 2017. "Intercourse across economic growth, trade and renewable energy consumption in developing and developed countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 527-534.
    8. Bartolini, David & Ninka, Eniel & Santolini, Raffaella, 2017. "Tax Decentralisation, Labour productivity and Employment," MPRA Paper 81070, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Openness; Cross-country growth regression; Model uncertainty; Bayesian model averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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