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Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?

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  • Kourtellos, Andros
  • Tan, Chih Ming
  • Zhang, Xiaobo

Abstract

"There have been intensive debates on the role of aid in promoting economic development in developing countries by using cross-country analyses. Cross-country regression assuming linear relationship between aid and growth and without taking into heterogeneity of countries would produce biased estimates. To correct this, in this paper we investigate the relationship between foreign aid and growth using recently developed sample splitting methods that allow us to simultaneously uncover evidence for the existence of heterogeneity and nonlinearity. We also address model uncertainty in the context of these methods. We find some evidence that aid may have heterogeneous effects on growth across two growth regimes defined by ethnolinguistic fractionalization. However, when we account for model uncertainty, we find no evidence to suggest that the relationship between aid and growth is nonlinear. In fact, our results suggest that the partial effect of aid on growth is likely to be weakly negative. In this sense, our findings suggest that aid is potentially counterproductive to growth with outcomes not meeting the expectations of donors... The methodology developed in this paper can be used to identify typologies on other outcome variables, such as those included in the Millennium Development Goals." from Authors' Abstract
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  • Kourtellos, Andros & Tan, Chih Ming & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2007. "Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 515-540, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:29:y:2007:i:3:p:515-540
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedrosa-Garcia, Jose Antonio, 2017. "Trends and Features of Research on Foreign Aid: A Literature Review," MPRA Paper 82134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2012. "Aid, Growth and Devolution," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1723-1749.
    3. Emara, Noha & Plotkin, David & Stein, Alyssa, 2013. "Foreign aid and growth in Egypt: The role of economic policy," MPRA Paper 68687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Eriṣ, Mehmet N. & Ulaṣan, Bülent, 2013. "Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 867-883.
    5. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2018. "Analysing the Sources of Growth in an Emerging Market Economy: The Thailand Experience," MPRA Paper 86337, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. David Coyne & Chih-ming Tan, 2012. "Do political institutions yield multiple growth regimes?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1442-1454.
    7. Andros Kourtellos & Ioanna Stylianou & Chih Tan, 2015. "Robust multiple regimes in growth volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 461-491, February.
    8. Andros Kourtellos & Ioanna Stylianou & Chih Ming Tan, 2013. "Robust Multiple Regimes in Growth Volatility," Working Paper series 52_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. Thomas Ziesemer, 2011. "Growth with endogenous migration hump and the multiple, dynamically interacting effects of aid in poor developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4865-4878.
    10. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
    11. Cohen-Cole, Ethan B. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2012. "Nonlinearities in growth: From evidence to policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 42-58.
    12. Djedje Hermann YOHOU & Michaël GOUJON & Bertrand LAPORTE & Samuel GUERINEAU, 2016. "Is Aid Unfriendly to Tax? African Evidence of Heterogeneous Direct and Indirect Effects," Working Papers 201608, CERDI.
    13. Renkow, Mitch, 2010. "Impacts of IFPRI's "priorities for pro-poor public investment" global research program:," Impact assessments 31, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Rodríguez, Francisco & Shelton, Cameron A., 2013. "Cleaning up the kitchen sink: Specification tests and average derivative estimators for growth econometrics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 260-273.
    15. Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "Aid, growth and decentralization," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 09/09, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    16. Muhammad Javid & Abdul Qayyum, 2011. "Foreign Aid and Growth Nexus in Pakistan: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies," PIDE-Working Papers 2011:72, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    17. Cui, Xiaoyong & Gong, Liutang, 2008. "Foreign aid, domestic capital accumulation, and foreign borrowing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1269-1284, September.

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