IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v73y2019icp192-204.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does foreign aid play a role in the maintenance of economic growth? A non-linear analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Harb, Nermeen
  • Hall, Stephen G.

Abstract

Should donors keep scaling up foreign aid or should they be more cautious because of the recipient country’s limited absorptive capacity? This paper investigates the non-linearity hypothesis between foreign aid and economic growth for 25 developing countries during the period from 1984 to 2008. By using state space system equations, we provide a new insight to estimating the Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model (PSTR). This method identifies the estimated coefficients at each point of time and determines endogenously an appropriate threshold level. For upper middle countries, we recognise the positive impact of aid flows on economic growth but with diminishing returns while lower middle and least developed countries support the big push concept.

Suggested Citation

  • Harb, Nermeen & Hall, Stephen G., 2019. "Does foreign aid play a role in the maintenance of economic growth? A non-linear analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 192-204.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:73:y:2019:i:c:p:192-204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2018.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976917302375
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2018.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    2. Caner, Mehmet & Hansen, Bruce E., 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 813-843, October.
    3. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    4. Omay, Tolga & Öznur Kan, Elif, 2010. "Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 996-1005, September.
    5. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
    6. Alberto Alesina & Beatrice Weder, 2002. "Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1126-1137, September.
    7. Kourtellos, Andros & Tan, Chih Ming & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2007. "Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 515-540, September.
    8. Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 2007. "Big Push versus Absorptive Capacity. How to reconcile the Two Approaches," Post-Print hal-00204840, HAL.
    9. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    10. R. Lensink & H. White, 2001. "Are There Negative Returns to Aid?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 42-65.
    11. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    12. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398, April.
    13. Yu, Ping, 2013. "Inconsistency of 2SLS estimators in threshold regression with endogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 532-536.
    14. Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Mr. Michael T. Hadjimichael, 1995. "Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 1995/136, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004. "On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages 191-216, June.
    16. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
    17. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    18. Feeny, Simon & de Silva, Ashton, 2012. "Measuring absorptive capacity constraints to foreign aid," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 725-733.
    19. Mosley, Paul & Hudson, John & Horrell, Sara, 1987. "Aid, the Public Sector and the Market in Less Developed Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 616-641, September.
    20. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2006. "Big Push versus Absorptive Capacity: How to Reconcile the Two Approaches," Working Papers 200614, CERDI.
    21. Yu, Ping & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2018. "Threshold regression with endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 50-68.
    22. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    23. Law, Siong Hook & Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2013. "Institutional quality thresholds and the finance – Growth nexus," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5373-5381.
    24. Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Identifying thresholds in aid effectiveness," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 619-638, August.
    25. Simeon Djankov & Jose Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2008. "The curse of aid," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 169-194, September.
    26. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
    27. Sarantis Kalyvitis & Thanasis Stengos & Irene Vlachaki, 2012. "Are Aid Flows Excessive or Insufficient? Estimating the Growth Impact of Aid in Threshold Regressions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(3), pages 298-315, July.
    28. Olivier Basdevant, 2003. "On applications of state-space modelling in macroeconomics," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    29. Law, Siong Hook & Singh, Nirvikar, 2014. "Does too much finance harm economic growth?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 36-44.
    30. George Economides & Sarantis Kalyvitis & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2008. "Does foreign aid distort incentives and hurt growth? Theory and evidence from 75 aid-recipient countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 463-488, March.
    31. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2011. "Electricity demand elasticities and temperature: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression with instrumental variable approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 896-902, September.
    32. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil R. Bhavnani & Samuel Bazzi, 2012. "Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 590-617, June.
    33. Svensson, Jakob, 2000. "Foreign aid and rent-seeking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 437-461, August.
    34. Sandrina Berthault Moreira, 2005. "Evaluating The Impact Of Foreign Aid On Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 25-48, December.
    35. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
    36. J. Svensson, 1999. "Aid, Growth and Democracy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 275-297, November.
    37. Kwabena Gyimah‐Brempong & Jeffrey S. Racine & Anthony Gyapong, 2012. "Aid and economic growth: Sensitivity analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 17-33, January.
    38. Georgios Karras, 2006. "Foreign aid and long-run economic growth: empirical evidence for a panel of developing countries," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 15-28.
    39. Simon Feeny & Mark McGillivray, 2010. "Aid and Growth in Small Island Developing States," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 897-917.
    40. Karen L. Remmer, 2004. "Does Foreign Aid Promote the Expansion of Government?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(1), pages 77-92, January.
    41. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2013. "Modeling OECD energy demand: An international panel smooth transition error-correction model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 372-383.
    42. Isham, Jonathan & Kaufmann, Daniel & Pritchett, Lant H, 1997. "Civil Liberties, Democracy, and the Performance of Government Projects," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(2), pages 219-242, May.
    43. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207, Decembrie.
    44. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," Working Papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    2. Md Ismail Hossain & Md Istiak Hossain & Mollah Aminul Islam & Md Reza Sultanuzzaman, 2022. "Does Foreign Aid Have an Expected Role in the Economic Growth of Bangladesh? An Analysis in ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 113-126, November.
    3. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Nair, Mahendhiran S. & Bennett, Sara E., 2023. "Does foreign aid affect innovation and institutional quality in middle-income countries?," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Muhammad Arshad & Sana Hameed Pasha & Naeem Akram & Nadia Hussain, 2023. "Estimating aggregate economic rate of return to foreign aid in Pakistan," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Kaya, Ilker & Kaya, Ozgur, 2020. "Foreign aid, institutional quality and government fiscal behavior in emerging economies: An empirical investigation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 59-67.
    6. Thanh Dinh Su & Canh Phuc Nguyen, 2022. "Foreign financial flows, human capital and economic growth in African developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3010-3031, July.
    7. Yao Hongxing & Olivier Joseph Abban & Alex Dankyi Boadi, 2021. "Foreign aid and economic growth: Do energy consumption, trade openness and CO2 emissions matter? A DSUR heterogeneous evidence from Africa’s trading blocs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-25, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    2. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Lahiri, Sajal & Younas, Javed, 2015. "Financing growth through foreign aid and private foreign loans: Nonlinearities and complementarities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-96.
    3. Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2012. "Aid, Growth and Devolution," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1723-1749.
    4. Innocent .U. Duru & Bartholomew .O.N. Okafor & Millicent Adanne Eze & Gabriel .O. Ebenyi, 2020. "Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 35-50.
    5. Tierney, Michael J. & Nielson, Daniel L. & Hawkins, Darren G. & Roberts, J. Timmons & Findley, Michael G. & Powers, Ryan M. & Parks, Bradley & Wilson, Sven E. & Hicks, Robert L., 2011. "More Dollars than Sense: Refining Our Knowledge of Development Finance Using AidData," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 1891-1906.
    6. Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "Aid, growth and decentralization," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 09/09, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    7. Angeles, Luis & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2009. "Aid effectiveness: the role of the local elite," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 120-134, September.
    8. Sarantis Kalyvitis & Thanasis Stengos & Irene Vlachaki, 2012. "Are Aid Flows Excessive or Insufficient? Estimating the Growth Impact of Aid in Threshold Regressions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(3), pages 298-315, July.
    9. Almuth Scholl, 2009. "Aid Effectiveness and Limited Enforceable Conditionality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 377-391, April.
    10. Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011. "Foreign aid - a fillip for development or a fuel for corruption?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 158, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Simon Feeny & Paul Hansen & Stephen Knowles & Mark McGillivray & Franz Ombler, 2019. "Donor motives, public preferences and the allocation of UK foreign aid: a discrete choice experiment approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(3), pages 511-537, August.
    12. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    13. Kilby, Christopher, 2005. "World Bank lending and regulation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 384-407, December.
    14. Mark McGillivray, 2006. "Aid Allocation and Fragile States," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2006-01, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Roland Hodler & David S. Knight, 2012. "Ethnic Fractionalisation and Aid Effectiveness," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 21(1), pages 65-93, January.
    16. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2009. "Aid and Growth: Have We Come Full Circle?," Discussion Papers 09-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    17. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Ola Olsson, 0. "Windfall Gains, Political Economy and Economic Development," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(suppl_1), pages -109.
    18. Kilby, Christopher, 2005. "Aid and regulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 325-345, May.
    19. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2012. "Do Institutions And Social Cohesion Enhance The Effectiveness Of Aid? New Evidence From Africa," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-19.
    20. Boriana Yontcheva & Mrs. Nadia Masud, 2005. "Does Foreign Aid Reduce Poverty? Empirical Evidence from Nongovernmental and Bilateral Aid," IMF Working Papers 2005/100, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign aid; Economic growth; Non-linear; PSTR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:73:y:2019:i:c:p:192-204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.