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Growth with Endogenous Migration Hump and the Multiple, Dynamically Interacting Effects of Aid in Poor Developing Countries

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  • Ziesemer, Thomas

    () (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University)

Abstract

We show empirically that aid given to poor developing countries enhances growth and reduces emigration once several dynamically interacting effects of aid are taken into account in a system of equations. We estimate equations for net immigration flows as a share of the labour force and GDP per capita growth and also for all their regressors including remittances and official development aid. We use dynamic panel data methods for a sample of poor countries with GDP per capita below $1200 (2000) for which aid is about 9.5% of GDP. The partial effects in these regressions are as follows. Remittances enhance net immigration, savings, public expenditure on education and growth, but reduce tax revenues, all as a share of GDP. Net immigration enhances labour force growth and the savings ratio. Official development aid decreases the savings ratio and the per capita GDP growth rate, but it increases investment, public expenditure on education and literacy and also labour force growth. Then we integrate all equations to a dynamic system and run a simulation. The result is an endogenous migration hump with several peaks. In a counterfactual simulation we double aid with the result that for more than a hundred years migration is reduced and the GDP per capita is enhanced, because the positive effects of aid on investment and education dominate the negative direct effects of aid on growth and the unfavourable effects on savings, tax revenues, and labour force growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziesemer, Thomas, 2008. "Growth with Endogenous Migration Hump and the Multiple, Dynamically Interacting Effects of Aid in Poor Developing Countries," MERIT Working Papers 057, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2008057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Athreye, Suma, 2010. "Economic Adversity and Entrepreneurship-led Growth: Lessons from the Indian Software Sector," WIDER Working Paper Series 004, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2009. "Remittances, lagged dependent variables and migration stocks as determinants of migration from developing countries," MERIT Working Papers 007, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2012. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 103-118.
    4. A. Nurul Hossain & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2013. "Remittances and investment nexus in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), pages 387-407.
    5. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2012. "The impact of development aid on education and health: Survey and new evidence from dynamic models," MERIT Working Papers 057, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. repec:zag:zirebs:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:101-112 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Migration; Remittances; Aid; Growth;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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