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Revisiting the Migration-Development Nexus: A Gravity Model Approach

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  • Letouzé, Emmanuel
  • Purser, Mark
  • Rodríguez, Francisco
  • Cummins, Matthew

Abstract

This paper presents empirical estimates of a gravity model of bilateral migration that properly accounts for non-linearities and tackles causality issues through an instrumental variables approach. In contrast to the existing literature, which is limited to OECD data, we have estimated our model using a matrix of bilateral migration stocks for 127 countries. We find that the inverted-U relationship between income at origin and migration found by other authors survives the more demanding bilateral specification but does not survive both instrumentation and introduction of controls for the geographical and cultural proximity between country pairs. We also evaluate the effect of migration on origin and destination country income using the geographically determined component of migration as a source of exogenous variation and fail to find a significant effect of migration on origin or destination income.

Suggested Citation

  • Letouzé, Emmanuel & Purser, Mark & Rodríguez, Francisco & Cummins, Matthew, 2009. "Revisiting the Migration-Development Nexus: A Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 19227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19227
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Gove, 2018. "Migration as Development: Household Survey Evidence on Migrants’ Wage Gains," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 1033-1060, June.
    2. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Francesco Nicolli & Giulia Bettin, 2012. "Does climate change foster emigration from less developed countries? Evidence from bilateral data," Working Papers 201210, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
    4. Sheila Torres & Rafael Company & Lucas Jódar, 2025. "A quantitative logistic-like model of immigration: the case of Spain," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 1793-1806, April.
    5. Michael Good, 2013. "Gravity and Localized Migration," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2445-2453.
    6. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    7. Marie Poprawe, 2015. "On the relationship between corruption and migration: empirical evidence from a gravity model of migration," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 337-354, June.
    8. Dirk Engel & Oliver Heneric, 2013. "Localization of knowledge and entrepreneurs’ mobility: the case of Germany’s biotechnology industry," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 33(2), pages 173-192, October.
    9. Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2017. "Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 445-480.
    10. Maria Ravlik, 2014. "Determinants Of International Migration: A Global Analysis," HSE Working papers WP BRP 52/SOC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Stöver, Britta, 2017. "Die räumliche Flexibilität von Studierenden - Gründe für das Wanderungsverhalten von Studienanfänger/-innen zwischen den Bundesländern," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-604, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    12. Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2013. "Gravity Model Applications and Macroeconomic Perspectives," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 48, September.
    13. Laura Hering & Rodrigo Paillacar, 2016. "Does Access to Foreign Markets Shape Internal Migration? Evidence from Brazil," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(1), pages 78-103.
    14. Bishawjit Mallick & Joachim Vogt, 2014. "Population displacement after cyclone and its consequences: empirical evidence from coastal Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 191-212, September.
    15. Noel Gaston & Douglas R. Nelson, 2013. "Bridging Trade Theory And Labour Econometrics: The Effects Of International Migration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 98-139, February.
    16. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81, September.
    17. Robert E.B. Lucas, 2014. "The migration–trade link in developing economies: a summary and extension of evidence," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 11, pages 288-326, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Miguel Flores & Mary Zey & Nazrul Hoque, 2013. "Economic Liberalization and Contemporary Determinants of Mexico's Internal Migration: An Application of Spatial Gravity Models," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 195-214, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity models; international migration; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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