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Measuring Trade and Trade Potential: A Survey

  • Shiro Armstrong

This paper provides a survey and a brief critical review of the literature on the widely used gravity models of trade, as a prelude to the justification of its use with the stochastic frontier methodology. The important papers on the theoretical foundations of the gravity model are reviewed and related to papers applied to explain determinants of trade flows. Then some shortcomings of the gravity model are discussed. The paper introduces the stochastic frontier gravity model as a way of estimating trade resistances and overcoming some of the shortcomings of conventional gravity models in their use for that purpose.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/pep/apep-368.pdf
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Paper provided by Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series Asia Pacific Economic Papers with number 368.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:csg:ajrcau:368
Contact details of provider: Postal: Canberra ACT 2601
Phone: (61-2) 6249 3780
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Web page: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/research_units/ajrc/
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  1. Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  2. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  3. Peter Drysdale & Xinpeng Xu, 2004. "Taiwan's Role in the Economic Architecture of East Asia and the Pacific," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 343, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
  5. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Deardoff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Working Papers 382, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  7. Rose, Andrew K, 2003. "Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3764, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Drysdale, Peter & Garnaut, Ross, 1982. "Trade Intensities and the Analysis of Bilateral Trade Flows in a Many-Country World : A Survey," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 22(2), pages 62-84, February.
  9. Aigner, Dennis & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Peter, 1977. "Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-37, July.
  10. Peter Egger, . "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," WIFO Working Papers 141, WIFO.
  11. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
  12. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
  13. James Harrigan, 2001. "Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?," NBER Working Papers 8675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2003. "Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur- European trade flows," International Trade 0309019, EconWPA.
  15. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. K. Kalirajan, 1999. "Stochastic varying coefficients gravity model: An application in trade analysis," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 185-193.
  17. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March.
  18. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
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