IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2006693.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evaluating China’s integration in world trade with a gravity model based benchmark

Author

Listed:
  • Schnatz, Bernd
  • Bussière, Matthieu

Abstract

The rapid transition of China from a closed agricultural society to an industrial powerhouse has been associated with a rapid increase in the share of China in world trade. As the world is taking the full measure of this phenomenon, tensions have been arising ranging from holding China partly responsible for global imbalances to complaints about the “excessive” competitiveness of Chinese products. Without a quantifiable benchmark, however, such claims are difficult to judge. This paper therefore provides an assessment of China’s “natural” place in the world economy based on a new set of trade integration indicators. These indicators are used as a benchmark in order to examine whether China’s share in international trade is consistent with fundamentals such as economic size, location and other relevant factors. They constitute a better measure of trade integration that incorporates many more factors than traditional openness ratios. Results show that the model tracks international trade well and confirm that China is already well integrated in world markets, particularly with North America, several Latin American and East Asian emerging markets and most euro area countries. JEL Classification: C23, F15, F14

Suggested Citation

  • Schnatz, Bernd & Bussière, Matthieu, 2006. "Evaluating China’s integration in world trade with a gravity model based benchmark," Working Paper Series 693, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006693
    Note: 231394
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp693.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, pages 141-168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
    4. Anderton, Robert & di Mauro, Filippo & Moneta, Fabio, 2004. "Understanding the impact of the external dimension on the euro area: trade, capital flows and other international macroeconomic linkages," Occasional Paper Series 12, European Central Bank.
    5. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2005. "Trade Integration of Central and Eastern European Countries: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Working Papers 105, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. Yongzheng Yang, 2003. "China'S Integration Into the World Economy: Implications for Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2003/245, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-1398, November.
    8. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jong‐Wha Lee & Innwon Park, 2005. "Free Trade Areas in East Asia: Discriminatory or Non‐discriminatory?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 21-48, January.
    10. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, May.
    11. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU," IMF Working Papers 2004/154, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, December.
    13. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jan), pages 49-63.
    14. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lee Branstetter & Nicholas Lardy, 2006. "China's Embrace of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 12373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Alan V. Deardorff, 2011. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 24, pages 267-293, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables, 2021. "Multinational firms and the new trade theory," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 3, pages 47-67, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Filip Abraham & Jan Van Hove, 2005. "The Rise of China: Prospects of Regional Trade Policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(3), pages 486-509, October.
    19. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2004. "Distance, trade and FDI: a Hausman-Taylor SUR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 227-246.
    20. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2004. "Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 671, Econometric Society.
    21. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
    22. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    23. Robert Holzmann & Christian Thimann & Angela Petz, 1994. "Pressure to Adjust: Consequences for the OECD Countries from Reforms in Eastern Europe," International Trade 9403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Chang, Gene Hsin & Shao, Qin, 2004. "How much is the Chinese currency undervalued? A quantitative estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 366-371.
    25. Warwick J. McKibbin & Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Consequences of China's WTO Accession for Its Neighbors," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(2), pages 1-38.
    26. Peter K. Schott, 2006. "The Relative Sophistication of Chinese Exports," NBER Working Papers 12173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Robert Anderton & Filippo di Mauro & Fabio Moneta, 2004. "Understanding the impact of the external dimension on the euro area - trade, capital flows and other international macroeconomic linkages," Occasional Paper Series 12, European Central Bank.
    29. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    30. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July.
    31. Deardoff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Working Papers 382, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    32. Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, Oxana & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Russia's accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 680-699, December.
    33. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, February.
    34. Filippini, Carlo & Molini, Vasco, 2003. "The determinants of East Asian trade flows: a gravity equation approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 695-711, October.
    35. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China," Working Papers 2003-21, CEPII research center.
    36. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior," IMF Working Papers 2002/200, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Peter Egger, 2004. "Estimating regional trading bloc effects with panel data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(1), pages 151-166, March.
    38. Dustin H. Beckett & John W. Schindler, 2005. "Adjusting Chinese bilateral trade data: how big is China's trade surplus," International Finance Discussion Papers 831, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    39. repec:imf:imfops:232 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schnatz, Bernd & Bussière, Matthieu & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2005. "Trade integration of Central and Eastern European countries: lessons from a gravity model," Working Paper Series 545, European Central Bank.
    2. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:105:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
    4. Alemayehu Geda & Atnafu Meskel, 2008. "China and India's Growth Surge: Is it a curse or blessing for Africa? The Case of Manufactured Exports," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 247-272.
    5. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2005. "Austria's EU Accession and Trade," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 170-177.
    6. Olivier Lamotte, 2003. "Disintegration and trade in South-eastern Europe," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04031, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    7. Wessel, Jan, 2019. "Evaluating the transport-mode-specific trade effects of different transport infrastructure types," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-57.
    8. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zwinkels, Remco C.J. & Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd, 2010. "Gravity equations: Workhorse or Trojan horse in explaining trade and FDI patterns across time and space?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 102-115, February.
    10. Gilroy B. Michael & Lukas Elmar & Heimann Christian, 2013. "Technologiestandort Deutschland und internationale Wissensspillover / Technology Site Germany and International Knowledge Spillovers: Welchen Einfluss nehmen ausländische MNU auf deutsche Exporte? / W," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 575-599, October.
    11. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Felicitas, Nowak-Lehmann D. & Horsewood, Nicholas, 2009. "Are regional trading agreements beneficial?: Static and dynamic panel gravity models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-65, March.
    12. Sally Milton & M A B Siddique, 2014. "Trade Creation and Diversion Under the Thailand-Australia Free Trade Agreement (TAFTA)," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-26, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    13. Thi Hanh Vu, 2013. "International Export Flows of Vietnam :A Gravity Model Approach," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 56(1), pages 83-108.
    14. Guglielmo Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 573-573, October.
    15. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
    16. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2011. "One Money, One Market: A Revised Benchmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 419-435, August.
    17. Fabbri, D & Robone, S, 2008. "The geography of hospital admission in a National Health Service with patient choice: evidence from Italy," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 08/29, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    18. Roland Rieder, 2006. "Playing Dominoes in Europe: An Empirical Analysis of the Domino Theory for the EU, 1962-2004," IHEID Working Papers 11-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jun 2006.
    19. Enrique Martínez-Galán & Maria-Paula Fontoura & Isabel Proença, 2005. "Trade Potential In An Enlarged European Union: A Recent Approach," International Trade 0508011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
    21. Jérôme Trotignon, 2010. "La restriction des émissions de CO2 pénalise-t-elle les exportations ? Un modèle de gravité avec données de panel et variables muettes régionales," Post-Print halshs-00477244, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China.; gravity model; Panel data; trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.