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Russia's trade flows and WTO

  • Sergey Kolesnikov

    ()

    (Department of Economics, European University at St. Petersburg)

  • Olga Podkorytova

In our paper, we use the gravity model of the international trade to estimate the effect of the future WTO ascension for Russia based on the current WTO effect for Russia's WTO trade partners. Starting from Rose's specification, we constructed several progressively exact models. Nevertheless, none of these specifications shows any evidence that the WTO significantly and positively influences the trade between its members among Russia's trade partners. This result holds even as we exclude the oil and the gas trade and the FTA influence. Therefore, in terms of increasing the overall trade the value of ascension seems to be lower than FTAs, the impact of which is evident in the model.

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Paper provided by European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics in its series EUSP Deparment of Economics Working Paper Series with number Ec-06/11.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 21 Jun 2011
Date of revision: 01 Jul 2011
Handle: RePEc:eus:wpaper:ec0611
Note: Presented at the XVI conference on Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade (DEGIT-XVI), St. Petersburg, September, 8th-9th, 2011
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  1. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9713 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," CEPR Discussion Papers 5122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  7. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  8. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," International Trade 9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
  9. Yaroslav Lissovolik & Bogdan Lissovolik, 2004. "Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status," IMF Working Papers 04/159, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, Oxana & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Russia's accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 680-699, December.
  11. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
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