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The Consequences of China's WTO Accession for Its Neighbors

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  • Warwick J. McKibbin

    (Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies Australian National University Canberra, ACT 0200 Australia and The Brookings Institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20036 USA)

  • Wing Thye Woo

    (Economics Department University of California One Shields Avenue Davis, CA 95616, USA,)

Abstract

Our simulations of a global macroeconomic model suggest that China's WTO accession could create significant welfare losses in the ASEAN-4 if foreign direct investment (FDI) is significantly redirected away from these countries toward China, and if the ASEAN-4 countries are unable to implement policies to make up for the slower rate of technological diffusion from the reduced FDI inflow. If the ASEAN-4 do not fall behind technologically, then they will be able to find lucrative niches within the lengthened international manufacturing production chains. The ASEAN-4 must therefore strengthen their abilities to absorb new foreign technologies quickly and to engage in indigenous technical innovations. Copyright (c) 2003 Center for International Development and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J. McKibbin & Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Consequences of China's WTO Accession for Its Neighbors," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(2), pages 1-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:2:y:2003:i:2:p:1-38
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisha Houston & Julia Minty & Nathan Dal Bon, 2008. "Investment in East Asia since the Asian financial crisis," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 2, pages 13-34, July.
    2. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2023. "Automation and inequality with taxes and transfers," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(1), pages 68-100, February.
    3. Matthieu Bussière & Bernd Schnatz, 2009. "Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 85-111, February.
    4. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2012. "Assessing the international parity conditions and transmission mechanism for Malaysia-China," MPRA Paper 38930, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Benoît Mercereau, 2005. "FDI Flows to Asia: Did the Dragon Crowd Out the Tigers?," IMF Working Papers 2005/189, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Sadhana Srivastava, 2010. "Implications Of The Economic Rise Of The PRC For Asean and India: Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," Working Papers id:2680, eSocialSciences.
    7. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2011. "A structural modeling of exchange rate, prices and interest rates between Malaysia-China in the liberalization era," MPRA Paper 32955, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2006. "Fear of China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 226-240, April.
    9. Rammal, Hussain Gulzar & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "The impact of regulatory quality on intra-foreign direct investment flows in the ASEAN markets," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 401-414, August.
    10. Barry Eichengreen & Hui Tong, 2007. "Is China’s FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?," Chapters, in: Klaus Liebscher & Josef Christl & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), Foreign Direct Investment in Europe, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Tyers, Rod, 2015. "International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    12. Elena IANCHOVICHINA & Will MARTIN, 2006. "Trade Impacts of China's World Trade Organization Accession," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 45-65, June.

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