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Modelling the global financial crisis

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  • Warwick J. McKibbin
  • Andrew Stoeckel

Abstract

This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households, and international investors in an intertemporal (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium or DSGE) global model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that a 'switching' of expectations about risk premia shocks in financial markets can easily generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production currently being experienced in 2009 and subsequent events. The results show that the future of the global economy depends critically on whether the shocks to risk are expected to be permanent or temporary. The best representation of the crisis may be one where initial long-lasting pessimism about risk is unexpectedly revised to a more moderate scenario. This suggests a rapid recovery in countries not experiencing a balance sheet adjustment problem. Copyright 2009, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2009. "Modelling the global financial crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 581-607, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:25:y:2009:i:4:p:581-607
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/grq012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Stoeckel, Andrew, 2009. "The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5134, The World Bank.
    2. McKibbin, Warwick J & Vines, David, 2000. "Modelling Reality: The Need for Both Inter-temporal Optimization and Stickiness in Models for Policy-Making," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 106-137, Winter.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    4. Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December.
    5. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
    6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, January.
    7. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Consequences," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 54-86, Winter/Sp.
    9. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
    10. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Chanthapun, Waranya Pim, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 36, Asian Development Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Masahiro Kawai & Fan Zhai, 2010. "Asia’s Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment : A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis," Finance Working Papers 23055, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Steve Keen, 2013. "Predicting the ‘Global Financial Crisis’: Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(285), pages 228-254, June.
    3. Joseph F. Francois & Julia Wörz, 2011. "Shifts in International Trade and Value Added from 1995 to 2007: Insights into the Drivers of Growth," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 37-56.
    4. Lemelin, André & Robichaud, Véronique & Decaluwé, Bernard, 2013. "Endogenous current account balances in a world CGE model with international financial assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 146-160.

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