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Uncertainty and climate change policy design

  • McKibbin, Warwick J.
  • Wilcoxen, Peter J.

This paper argues that the problem with the targets and timetable approach to climate policy is that it ignores uncertainty about costs. An alternative approach on coordinating short run prices within a long run emissions targeting framework is outlined. A global economic model is used to demonstrate the nature of the economic uncertainty about climate policy and the gains to be achieved by equalizing carbon prices across countries. The paper also shows that although price and quantity-based systems appear to be similar they can fundamentally change the international transmission of economic shocks.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V82-4V74XHN-6/2/80465a83c9eb9671b7021900a2fc36de
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 463-477

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:3:p:463-477
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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  1. Warwick McKibbin & Peter Wilcoxen, 2008. "Building On Kyoto: Towards A Realistic Global Climate Agreement," CAMA Working Papers 2008-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J Wilcoxen, 2003. "Estimates of the Costs of Kyoto-Marrakesh Versus The McKibbin-Wilcoxen Blueprint," Departmental Working Papers 2003-14, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  3. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
  4. Andreas Löschel & Zhong Zhang, 2002. "The economic and environmental implications of the US repudiation of the kyoto protocol and the subsequent deals in Bonn and Marrakech," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 138(4), pages 711-746, December.
  5. Pizer, William, 1997. "Prices vs. Quantities Revisited: The Case of Climate Change," Discussion Papers dp-98-02, Resources For the Future.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  7. Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 1997. "A Better Way to Slow Global Climate Change," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 9702, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
  8. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, June.
  9. Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2002. "The Role of Economics in Climate Change Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 107-129, Spring.
  10. Weitzman, Martin L, 1974. "Prices vs. Quantities," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 477-91, October.
  11. Roberts, Marc J. & Spence, Michael, 1976. "Effluent charges and licenses under uncertainty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3-4), pages 193-208.
  12. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
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