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The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Consequences

  • Warwick J. McKibbin

    (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU College of Business and Economics, Australian National University, ACT 0200, Australia.)

  • Andrew Stoeckel

    (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU College of Business and Economics, Australian National University, ACT 0200, Australia.)

This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households, and international investors; and finds that the shocks observed in financial markets can generate in the in the G-Cubed model (an intertemporal global model) the severe economic contraction in global trade and production currently being experienced in 2009. Our investigation shows that the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non-durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies; and that the future of the global economy depends critically on whether the shocks to risk are expected to be permanent or temporary. (c) 2010 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Asian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 9 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 54-86

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:9:y:2010:i:1:p:54-86
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  1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  3. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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