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The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade


  • McKibbin, Warwick J.
  • Stoeckel, Andrew


This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in a global economic model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paper explores the implications of the large increase in fiscal deficits and the implications of a global trade war in response to the financial crisis.

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  • McKibbin, Warwick J. & Stoeckel, Andrew, 2009. "The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5134, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5134

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    2. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    3. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
    4. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, S├ębastien, 2010. "International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2009. "Modelling the global financial crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 581-607, Winter.
    3. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    4. Justin Yifu Lin & Will Martin, 2010. "The financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 133-144, November.
    5. World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Global Monitoring Report 2010 : The MDGs after the Crisis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2444, March.
    6. repec:bla:econpa:v:36:y:2017:i:3:p:266-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lin, Justin Yifu & Martin, William J., 2009. "The Financial Crisis and Its Impact on the Global Agricultural Landscape," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 53208, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    Economic Theory&Research; Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Banks&Banking Reform; Labor Policies;

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