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The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-10: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space and Exchange Rate Adjustment

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Yothin Jinjarak

Abstract

This paper studies the cross-country variation of the fiscal stimulus and the exchange rate adjustment propagated by the global crisis of 2008-9, identifying the role of economic structure in accounting for the heterogeneity of response. We find that greater de facto fiscal space prior to the global crisis and lower trade openness were associated with a higher fiscal stimulus/GDP during 2009-2010 (where the de facto fiscal space is the inverse of the average tax-years it would take to repay the public debt). Lowering the 2006 public debt/average tax base from the level of low-income countries (5.94) down to the average level of the Euro minus the Euro-area peripheral countries (1.97), was associated with a larger crisis stimulus in 2009-11 of 2.78 GDP percentage points. Joint estimation of fiscal stimuli and exchange rate depreciations indicates that higher trade openness was associated with a smaller fiscal stimulus and a higher depreciation rate during the crisis. Overall, the results are in line with the predictions of the neo-Keynesian open-economy model.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2011. "The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-10: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space and Exchange Rate Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 17427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17427 Note: IFM ITI
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabian Gunzinger & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "It's Politics, Stupid! Political Constraints Determined Governments' Reactions to the Great Recession," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 584-603, November.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2012. "Income Inequality, Tax Base and Sovereign Spreads," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(4), pages 431-444, December.
    3. Jarmila Botev & Jean-Marc Fournier & Annabelle Mourougane, 2016. "A Re-assessment of Fiscal Space in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1352, OECD Publishing.
    4. Dolls, Mathias & Peichl, Andreas & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2011. "Eine Herausforderung für die G20: Global vereinbarte Schuldenbremsen und transnationale fiskalpolitische Aufsichtsgremien," IZA Standpunkte 45, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Libich, Jan & Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Stehlík, Petr, 2015. "Monetary exit and fiscal spillovers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 184-206.
    6. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. Costa Fernandes & Ana-Cristina Nicolescu, 2012. "The Recent Dynamics of Public Debt in the European Union: A Matter of Fundamentals or the Result of a Failed Monetary Experiment?," FEP Working Papers 467, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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