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Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Yothin Jinjarak
  • Donghyun Park

Abstract

We empirically assess the relative importance of various economic fundamentals in accounting for the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging markets during 2004-2012, which encompasses the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Inflation, state fragility, external debt, and commodity terms of trade volatility were positively associated, while trade openness and more favourable fiscal balance/GDP ratio were negatively associated with sovereign CDS spreads. Yet the relative importance of economic fundamentals in the pricing of sovereign risk varies over time. The key factors are trade openness and state fragility in the pre-crisis period, external debt/GDP ratio and inflation in the crisis period, and inflation and public debt/GDP ratio in the post- crisis period. Asian countries enjoy lower sovereign spreads than Latin American countries, and this gap widened during and after the crisis. Trade openness was the biggest factor behind Asia's lower sovereign spreads before the crisis, and inflation during and after the crisis. The results imply that external factors were paramount in pricing sovereign risk prior to the crisis, but internal factors associated with the capacity to adjust to adverse shocks gained prominence during and after the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2013. "Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 18963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18963
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:258-269 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2013. "Debt levels, debt composition, and sovereign spreads in emerging and advanced economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 518-547, AUTUMN.
    3. Magali Dauvin, 2016. "Sovereign spreads in emerging economies: do natural resources matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-11, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
    5. Amstad, Marlene & Remolona, Eli & Shek, Jimmy, 2016. "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-48.
    6. Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2014. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals in Latin American countries," Working Papers 2014-02, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    7. repec:eee:ememar:v:34:y:2018:i:c:p:98-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. María Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2014. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals Latin American countries," Working Papers 14-05, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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