What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk
We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for fifty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005–10. We focus in particular on five countries in the South-West Eurozone Periphery, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Dynamic panel estimates show that fiscal space and other macroeconomic factors are statistically and economically important determinants of sovereign risk. However, risk-pricing of the Eurozone Periphery countries is not predicted accurately either in-sample or out-of-sample: unpredicted high spreads are evident during global crisis period, especially in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis swept over the periphery area. We match the periphery group with five middle income countries outside Europe that were closest in terms of fiscal space during the European fiscal crisis. Eurozone Periphery default risk is priced much higher than the matched countries in 2010, even allowing for differences in fundamentals. One interpretation is that these economies switched to a “pessimistic” self-fulfilling expectational equilibrium. An alternative interpretation is that the market prices not on current but future fundamentals, expecting adjustment challenges in the Eurozone periphery to be more difficult for than the matched group of middle-income countries because of exchange rate and monetary constraints.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2007.
"How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk?,"
NBER Working Papers
13658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marian Micu & Eli M Remolona & Philip D. Wooldridge, 2006. "The price impact of rating announcements: which announcements matter?," BIS Working Papers 207, Bank for International Settlements.
- Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1999.
"Reserve Uncertainty and the Supply of International Credit,"
NBER Working Papers
7202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2002. "Reserve Uncertainty and the Supply of International Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 631-49, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1995.
"Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features,"
NBER Working Papers
5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Antje Berndt & Iulian Obreja, 2010. "Decomposing European CDS Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 189-233.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009.
"Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2010. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Working Paper Series 1271, European Central Bank.
- Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña Sánchez de Rivera & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2010.
"Are all Credit Default Swap databases equal?,"
Business Economics Working Papers
wb104621, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
- Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983.
"Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
- Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2012.
"The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-2010: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space, and Exchange Rate Adjustment,"
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 301 - 342.
- Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2011. "The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-2010: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space, and Exchange Rate Adjustment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, pages 301-342 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frank Packer & Chamaree Suthiphongchai, 2003. "Sovereign credit default swaps," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
- John Ammer & Fang Cai, 2007. "Sovereign CDS and bond pricing dynamics in emerging markets: does the cheapest-to-deliver option matter?," International Finance Discussion Papers 912, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
- Dooley, Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2009.
"Transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis to emerging markets: Evidence on the decoupling-recoupling hypothesis,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1331-1349, December.
- Michael P. Dooley & Michael M. Hutchison, 2009. "Transmission of the U.S. Subprime Crisis to Emerging Markets: Evidence on the Decoupling-Recoupling Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 15120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Kiff & Jennifer A. Elliott & Elias G. Kazarian & Jodi G. Scarlata & Carolyne Spackman, 2009. "Credit Derivatives: Systemic Risks and Policy Options?," IMF Working Papers 09/254, International Monetary Fund.
- Jeffery D Amato, 2005. "Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
- Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2010. "The future of public debt: prospects and implications," BIS Working Papers 300, Bank for International Settlements.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:34:y:2013:i:c:p:37-59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.