IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/996.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: do global factors matter?

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We study the determinants of sovereign default risk for a group of 23 OECD countries using quarterly data spanning the period between 2000:Q1 and 2016:Q3. Applying the recently developed panel dynamic heterogeneous common correlated effects estimator of Chudik and Pesaran [2015] our study innovates in considering potential endogeneity issues and cross-sectional dependence. We control for global risk appetite and country risk ratings. The results show that common factors are the main drivers of solvency risk for our set of countries. Specially relevant, we find that macroeconomic determinants are not significant predictors of long-term sovereign spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand & Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia, 2017. "Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: do global factors matter?," Borradores de Economia 996, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:996
    DOI: 10.32468/be.996
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.996
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.996?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2014. "An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 133-153.
    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    3. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    4. Amstad, Marlene & Remolona, Eli & Shek, Jimmy, 2016. "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-48.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    6. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
    7. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    8. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    9. Joakim Westerlund & Hande Karabiyik & Paresh Narayan, 2017. "Testing for Predictability in panels with General Predictors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 554-574, April.
    10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    13. Jair N Ojeda-Joya & José E Gómez-González, 2014. "The Term Structure of Sovereign Default Risk in an Emerging Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(4), pages 657-675, December.
    14. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "Large Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectional Dependence: A Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 4371, CESifo.
    15. Edwards, Sebastian, 1986. "The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets : An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 565-589, June.
    16. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    17. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    18. Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2003. "Empirical determinants of emerging market economies' sovereign bond spreads," Bank of England working papers 205, Bank of England.
    19. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    20. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2010. "The future of public debt: prospects and implications," BIS Working Papers 300, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Inci Gumus, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Market Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 649-663, September.
    22. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Jeffery D Amato, 2005. "Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    24. Franck Packer & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Contractual terms and CDS pricing," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    25. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Augustin, Patrick & Tédongap, Roméo, 2016. "Real Economic Shocks and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 541-587, April.
    27. Banerji, Sanjay & Ventouri, Alexia & Wang, Zilong, 2014. "The sovereign spread in Asian emerging economies: The significance of external versus internal factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 566-576.
    28. Mr. Vivek B. Arora & Mr. Martin D. Cerisola, 2000. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Economic Conditions in Emerging Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2000/148, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    30. Eichler, Stefan & Maltritz, Dominik, 2013. "The term structure of sovereign default risk in EMU member countries and its determinants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1810-1816.
    31. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2023. "An explained extreme gradient boosting approach for identifying the time-varying determinants of sovereign risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Shaowei Chen & Long Guo & Weike Zhang, 2023. "Financial Risk Measurement and Spatial Spillover Effects Based on an Imported Financial Risk Network: Evidence from Countries along the Belt and Road," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel & Seçil Şenel, 2018. "Analyzing the Global Risks for the Financial Crisis after the Great Depression Using Comparative Hybrid Hesitant Fuzzy Decision-Making Models: Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, September.
    4. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2018. "The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-56.
    5. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Valencia, Oscar M. & Sánchez, Gustavo A., 2022. "How fiscal rules can reduce sovereign debt default risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Lukasz Dopierala & Daria Ilczuk & Liwiusz Wojciechowski, 2020. "Sovereign credit ratings and CDS spreads in Emerging Europe," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(3), pages 419-438, September.
    7. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Souza, Ivan, 2020. "Sovereign default risk, debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Chang, Chun-Ping & Wen, Jun & Zheng, Mingbo & Dong, Minyi & Hao, Yu, 2018. "Is higher government efficiency conducive to improving energy use efficiency? Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 65-77.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Valencia, Oscar M. & Sánchez, Gustavo A., 2022. "How fiscal rules can reduce sovereign debt default risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
    3. Audzeyeva, Alena & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2018. "On the predictability of emerging market sovereign credit spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 140-157.
    4. Özmen, Erdal & Doğanay Yaşar, Özge, 2016. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 93-101.
    5. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    6. Blommestein, Hans & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Qian, Zongxin, 2016. "Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 10-21.
    7. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    8. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
    9. D’Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2014. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads – The times, they are a-changin," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 155-176.
    10. Diego-Ivan Ruge-Leiva, 2014. "International R&D spillovers and unobserved common shocks," Working Papers 08/14, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    11. Eichler, Stefan & Maltritz, Dominik, 2013. "The term structure of sovereign default risk in EMU member countries and its determinants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1810-1816.
    12. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
    13. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2023. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity: Machine Learning Insights on Causality and Prediction," IREA Working Papers 202315, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2023.
    14. António Afonso & Nuno Verdial, 2019. "Sovereign debt crisis in Portugal and in Spain," Working Papers REM 2019/0112, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. Britta Niehof, 2014. "Spillover Effects in Government Bond Spreads: Evidence from a GVAR Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201458, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    16. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    17. Audzeyeva, Alena & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner, 2010. "The role of country, regional and global market risks in the dynamics of Latin American yield spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 404-422, October.
    18. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Which are the long-run determinants of US outward FDI? Evidence using large long-memory panels," Working Papers 2022.08, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    19. Liang, Huijun & Shi, Changkuan & Abid, Nabila & Yu, Yanliang, 2023. "Are digitalization and human development discarding the resource curse in emerging economies?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    20. Dell’Erba Salvatore & Sola Sergio, 2016. "Does fiscal policy affect interest rates? Evidence from a factor-augmented panel," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 395-437, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel; Sovereign Default Risk; Common Correlated Effects.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:996. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.