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Spillover Effects in Government Bond Spreads: Evidence from a GVAR Model

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  • Britta Niehof

    () (University of Marburg)

Abstract

This paper analyses the main drivers of sovereign bond spreads in a globalised world. Specifically, we account for international spillovers of bond spreads by adding an additional driver, namely, financial markets, and allowing interactions across countries and markets. We contribute to the VAR literature by taking a global VAR approach, which encompasses international linkages and spillovers and also deals with the issue of identifcation and the large dimensionality. We find significant spillovers across countries and across markets. Moreover, we reveal that bond spreads are driven by stock markets. Furthermore, highly indebted countries react more strongely to foreign shocks than do stable economies. European bond markets are primarily driven by European shocks, whereas U.S. shocks have a higher impact on European countries that are in crisis and other non-European OECD countries. Our results demonstrate that financial market participants, central bankers, and fiscal policymakers need to be aware of global interdependencies, as bond spread volatility is driven by different factors for each country.

Suggested Citation

  • Britta Niehof, 2014. "Spillover Effects in Government Bond Spreads: Evidence from a GVAR Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201458, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201458
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    File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/57-2014_niehof.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian Model; Philipps Curve; Taylor Rule; Stochastic Differential Equations;

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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