IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lec/leecon/11-25.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Greek financial crisis: growing imbalances and sovereign spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Heather D. Gibson
  • Stephan G. Hall
  • George S. Tavlas

Abstract

We discuss the origins of the Greek financial crisis as manifested in the growing fiscal and current-account deficits since euro-area entry in 2001. We then provide an investigation of spreads on Greek relative to German long-term government debt. Using monthly data over the period 2000 to 2010, we estimate a cointegrating relationship between spreads and their long-term fundamental determinants, and compare the spreads predicted by this estimated relationship with actual spreads. We find periods of both undershooting and overshooting of spreads compared to what is predicted by the economic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Heather D. Gibson & Stephan G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2011. "The Greek financial crisis: growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/25, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:11/25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp11-25.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heather Gibson & Jim Malley, 2008. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 629-650, November.
    2. Davidson, James & Hall, Stephen, 1991. "Cointegration in Recursive Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 239-251, March.
    3. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1997. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 956-985, July.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros Migiakis, 2010. "European sovereign bond spreads: monetary unification, market conditions and financial integration," Working Papers 115, Bank of Greece.
    10. Ioana Alexopoulou & Irina Bunda & Annalisa Ferrando, 2010. "Determinants of Government Bond Spreads in New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 5-37, September.
    11. Baek, In-Mee & Bandopadhyaya, Arindam & Du, Chan, 2005. "Determinants of market-assessed sovereign risk: Economic fundamentals or market risk appetite?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-548, June.
    12. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
    13. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    14. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, March.
    15. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1997. "The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 437-461, September.
    16. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
    17. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    19. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
    20. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    21. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds [‘Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: some evidence from the EU’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532.
    22. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
    23. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
    24. Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    26. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aristei, David & Martelli, Duccio, 2014. "Sovereign bond yield spreads and market sentiment and expectations: Empirical evidence from Euro area countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-84.
    2. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Janus-headed salvation: Sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-2009," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 28-31, January.
    3. Mukerji, S., 1995. "A theory of play for games in strategic form when rationality is not common knowledge," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9519, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    4. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Corruption, temptation and guilt: moral character in economic theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9419, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    5. Ulph, A. & Valentini, L., 1998. "Is environmental dumping greater when firms are footloose?," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9819, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    6. Hall, Stephen & Mizon, Grayham E. & Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 339-357, August.
    7. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    8. Cook, S., 1996. "Econometric methodology II: the role of the philosophy of science," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9619, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    9. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Migiakis, Petros M., 2013. "Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4650-4664.
    10. Rayner, J., 1992. "Identification of structural VARs," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9219, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    11. MacLeod, W.B. & Malcomson, J.M., 1993. "Motivation, markets and dual economies," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9319, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    12. Mourmouras, I.A. & Ghosh, S., 1997. "Fiscal policies and the terms of trade in an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9719, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    13. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    14. Hassan, M. Kabir & Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2015. "Credit default swaps and sovereign debt markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 240-252.
    15. Stephen G.Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "A Portofolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Working Papers 61, Bank of Greece.
    16. Gerlach, Stefan & Wolff, Guntram B. & Schulz, Alexander, 2010. "Banking and Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2014. "An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 133-153.
    18. Britta Niehof, 2014. "Spillover Effects in Government Bond Spreads: Evidence from a GVAR Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201458, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    19. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    20. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greek financial crisis; sovereign spreads;

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:11/25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Abbie Sleath (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deleiuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.