IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lec/leecon/08-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Portfolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen G Hall
  • George Hondroyiannis
  • P.A.V.B. Swamy
  • George S. Tavlas

Abstract

As part of its monetary policy strategy, the European Central Bank has formulated a reference value for M3 growth. A pre-requisite for the use of a reference value for M3 growth is the existence of a stable demand function for that aggregate. However, a large empirical literature has emerged showing that, beginning in 2001, essentially all euro area M3 demand functions have exhibited instability. This paper argues that a proper understanding of the determination of money requires a portfolio analysis where the demand for broad money is seen as just one element in the wealth portfolio. Under this framework, wealth is the variable that constitutes the total budget constraint on the holdings of assets, including money, and changes in equity prices are a key transmission channel of monetary policy. Understanding money behaviour thus requires good data on euro area wealth which at present do not exist. Our basic premise is that there is a stable demand-for-money function but that the models that have been used until now to estimate euro area money-demand are not well-specified because they do not include a measure of wealth. Using two empirical methodologies - - a co-integrated vector equilibrium correction (VEC) approach and a time-varying coefficient (TVC) approach - - we find that a demand-for-money function that includes wealth is stable. The upshot of our findings is that M3 behaviour continues to provide useful information about medium-term developments on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2008. "A Portfolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/9, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:08/9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp08-9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davidson, James & Hall, Stephen, 1991. "Cointegration in Recursive Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 239-251, March.
    2. Swamy, P A V B & Tavlas, George S, 1995. "Random Coefficient Models: Theory and Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 165-196, June.
    3. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, June.
    4. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    5. David Cobham, 1996. "Causes and Effects of the European Monetary Crises of 1992–93," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 585-604, December.
    6. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    7. Pratt, John W. & Schlaifer, Robert, 1988. "On the interpretation and observation of laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 23-52.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    9. Zellner, Arnold, 2007. "Philosophy and objectives of econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 331-339, February.
    10. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
    11. Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Mr. Alessandro Calza & Mr. Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 2001/179, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
    14. Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J, 1991. "Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Economic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 39-49, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jawadi, Fredj & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 507-515.
    2. Stephen G. Hall & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2012. "Milton Friedman, the demand for money, and the ECB’s monetary policy strategy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(May), pages 153-186.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    4. Raheem, Ibrahim & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A new approach to exchange rate forecast: The role of global financial cycle and time-varying parameters," MPRA Paper 105359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. de Bondt, Gabe, 2009. "Euro area money demand: empirical evidence on the role of equity and labour markets," Working Paper Series 1086, European Central Bank.
    6. Hall, Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Measuring currency pressures: The cases of the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-20.
    7. Sophia Lazaretou, 2009. "Money supply and Greek history monetary statistics: definition, construction, sources and data," Working Papers 105, Bank of Greece.
    8. Gabe J. De Bondt, 2010. "New Evidence On The Motives For Holding Euro Area Money," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(3), pages 259-278, June.
    9. Hall, Stephen G. & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 2017. "Time-Varying Coefficient Models: A Proposal For Selecting The Coefficient Driver Sets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1158-1174, July.
    10. Stephan Barisitz, 2008. "Banking Transformation (1989 - 2006) in Central and Eastern Europe - With Special Reference to Balkans," Working Papers 78, Bank of Greece.
    11. Ahmad Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2015. "Demand for broad money in Singapore: does wealth matter?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 557-573, July.
    12. Peter Bernholz, 2008. "Government Bankruptcy of Balkan Nations and their Consequences for Money and Inflation before 1914: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 74, Bank of Greece.
    13. Mehrotra, Aaron & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2010. "Wealth effects and Russian money demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.
    2. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Where Has All the Money Gone? Wealth and the Demand for Money in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(1), pages 84-112, January.
    3. Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve In A Time-Varying Coefficient Environment: Some European Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 149-166, April.
    4. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2012. "The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 498-516.
    5. Adil, Masudul Hasan & Haider, Salman & Hatekar, Neeraj, 2018. "The empirical verification of money demand in case of India: Post-reform era," MPRA Paper 87148, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jun 2018.
    6. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Dees, Stephane & Mann, Micheal, 2009. "Horizontal and vertical transmissions in the US oil supply chain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 644-650, February.
    7. Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2010. "The Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Case of Non-Linear Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 91-103, February.
    8. Jalal D. Akhavein & John H. Leusner & P. A. V. B. Swamy, "undated". "Solving an Empirical Puzzle in the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
    9. Hall, Stephen & Mizon, Grayham E. & Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 339-357, August.
    10. Stephen G. Hall & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2012. "Milton Friedman, the demand for money, and the ECB’s monetary policy strategy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(May), pages 153-186.
    11. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
    12. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
    13. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & G. S. Tavlas, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 467-481, October.
    14. Jens Weidmann, 1997. "New Hope for the Fisher Effect? A Re-Examination Using Threshold Cointegration," Macroeconomics 9705005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ghoshray, Atanu & Lloyd, Tim A., 2003. "Price Linkages In The International Wheat Market," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. MacLeod, W.B. & Malcomson, J.M., 1993. "Motivation, markets and dual economies," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9319, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    17. Gerdesmeier, Dieter, 1996. "Die Rolle des Vermögens in der Geldnachfrage," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Jameson K. M. Watts, 2020. "Language Consistency and Stock Market Trading Volume," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    19. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2004. "Identifying, estimating and testing restricted cointegrated systems: An overview," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 440-465, November.
    20. Mukerji, S., 1995. "A theory of play for games in strategic form when rationality is not common knowledge," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9519, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; VEC; time varying coefficient estimation; Euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:08/9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deleiuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Abbie Sleath (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deleiuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.