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Cointegration in Recursive Systems

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  • Davidson, James
  • Hall, Stephen

Abstract

This paper studies the cointegration properties of vector autoregressive models having a block triangular structure, where unit roots may appear in either the marginal or conditional subsystems, or both. In the former case, the conventional stability analysis of dynamic systems is extended to deal with integrated exogenous variables. The concept of target relations incorporates economic equilibrium relationships into the model, with observed cointegrating vectors being interpreted as linear combinations of these. Unstable models may be classified as containing insufficient or inconsistent targets, according to a rank condition on the sum of the lag coefficient matrices. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Davidson, James & Hall, Stephen, 1991. "Cointegration in Recursive Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 239-251, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:101:y:1991:i:405:p:239-51
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen G.Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "A Portofolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Working Papers 61, Bank of Greece.
    2. Mercer, Jeffrey M., 1997. "An alternative specification for intraday simultaneity in spot and futures markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 667-682.
    3. Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 133-158, September.
    4. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2012. "The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 498-516.
    5. Ulph, A. & Valentini, L., 1998. "Is environmental dumping greater when firms are footloose?," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9819, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    6. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.
    7. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    8. Mukerji, S., 1995. "A theory of play for games in strategic form when rationality is not common knowledge," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9519, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    9. Barassi, Marco R. & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G., 2005. "Interest rate linkages: a Kalman filter approach to detecting structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-284, March.
    10. Mourmouras, I.A. & Ghosh, S., 1997. "Fiscal policies and the terms of trade in an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9719, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    11. Cook, S., 1996. "Econometric methodology II: the role of the philosophy of science," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9619, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    12. Niels Framroze Møller, 2019. "Decoding unemployment persistence: an econometric framework for identifying and comparing the sources of persistence with an application to UK macrodata," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1489-1514, May.
    13. Rayner, J., 1992. "Identification of structural VARs," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9219, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    14. Niels Framroze Møller, 2013. "Understanding Unemployment Hysteresis: A system-based econometric approach to changing equilibria and slow adjustment," Discussion Papers 13-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    15. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Where Has All the Money Gone? Wealth and the Demand for Money in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(1), pages 84-112, January.
    16. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
    17. Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October.
    18. Hall, Stephen & Mizon, Grayham E. & Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 339-357, August.
    19. MacLeod, W.B. & Malcomson, J.M., 1993. "Motivation, markets and dual economies," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9319, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    20. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Corruption, temptation and guilt: moral character in economic theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9419, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

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