Where Has All the Money Gone? Wealth and the Demand for Money in South Africa †
After an upward trend for about 25 years, the income velocity of money in South Africa reversed its course in 1994 and began a steep decline that continues to the present day. Some writers have argued that the change in income velocity is symptomatic of an unstable demand for money. The implication of this argument being that movements in the money supply provide little useful information about medium-to-long-term inflationary developments. We argue otherwise. Our basic premise is that there is a stable demand-for-money function but that the models that have been used to estimate South African money demand are not well specified because they do not include a measure of wealth. Using two empirical methodologies--a co-integrated vector equilibrium correction approach and a time-varying coefficient approach--we find that a demand-for-money function that includes wealth is stable. Consequently, our results suggest that the present practice of the South African Reserve Bank whereby M3 is used as an information variable in the Bank's inflation-targeting framework is well placed. Copyright 2009 The author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: firstname.lastname@example.org, Oxford University Press.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 18 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK|
Phone: +44-(0)1865 271084
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://www.jae.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003.
"Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 605-628, December.
- Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece," Working Papers 01, Bank of Greece.
- Davidson, James & Hall, Stephen, 1991. "Cointegration in Recursive Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 239-251, March.
- Andreas M. Fischer, 2006.
"Measuring Income Elasticity for Swiss Money Demand: What do the Cantons say about Financial Innovation?,"
2006-01, Swiss National Bank.
- Fischer, Andreas M., 2007. "Measuring income elasticity for Swiss money demand: What do the cantons say about financial innovation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1641-1660, October.
- Fischer, Andreas M, 2005. "Measuring Income Elasticity for Swiss Money Demand: What Do the Cantons Say About Financial Innovation?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andreas Fischer, 2005. "Measuring Income Elasticity for Swiss Money Demand: What do the cantons say about financial innovation?," Working Papers 05.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 1993.
"Random coefficient models: theory and applications,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
93-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Swamy, P A V B & Tavlas, George S, 1995. " Random Coefficient Models: Theory and Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 165-196, June.
- Kevin Nell, 2003. "The Stability of M3 Money Demand and Monetary Growth Targets: The Case of South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 155-180.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- G. S. Tavlas, 1989. "Money in South Africa: A Test of the Buffer Stock Model," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 57(1), pages 1-9, 03.
- Pratt, John W. & Schlaifer, Robert, 1988. "On the interpretation and observation of laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 23-52.
- George S. Tavlas & P.A.V.B. Swamy, 2006.
"The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation,"
34, Bank of Greece.
- P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
- P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, 06.
- Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2006. "A Note On Muth'S Rational Expectations Hypothesis: A Time-Varying Coefficient Interpretation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 415-425, June.
- Laurence Boone & Paul Noord, 2008. "Wealth effects on money demand in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 525-536, June.
- By Gunnar Jonsson, 2001. "Inflation, Money Demand, and Purchasing Power Parity in South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 2-2.
- A.S. Hurn & V.A. Muscatelli, 1992. "The Long-run Properties of the Demand for M3 in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 60(2), pages 93-101, 06.
- Zellner, Arnold, 2007. "Philosophy and objectives of econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 331-339, February.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:84-112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.