IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bog/wpaper/148.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: an overreaction to repressed demand?

Author

Listed:
  • Sophocles Brissimis

    (University of Piraeus and Bank of Greece)

  • Eugenie Garganas

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Stephen G. Hall

    (Bank of Greece, University of Leicester and University of Pretoria)

Abstract

In this paper we empirically analyse the factors which determined consumer credit in Greece in the period before and after the financial liberalisation, while accounting for significant changes in structure due to the lifting of credit restrictions and the subsequent impressive boom of consumer loans. We use multivariate cointegration techniques to estimate a vector error correction model (VECM) and identify separate demand and supply relationships for consumer loans. We introduce demand and supply-related shifts in parameters through the inclusion of appropriate dummy variables and trends in the long-run relationships. We partly deviate from the typical Johansen procedure and estimate the model in two steps. We find that the theoretical exclusion and coefficient-size restrictions on the demand and supply cointegrating vectors are valid. Our results are consistent with the operation of a bank lending channel in Greece. We also find that the supply side was mostly responsible for the acceleration of consumer loan growth following credit liberalisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophocles Brissimis & Eugenie Garganas & Stephen G. Hall, 2012. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: an overreaction to repressed demand?," Working Papers 148, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:148
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper2012148.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Jeanfils, P., 2000. "A Model with Explicit Expectations for Belgium," Papers 4, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    4. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Wickham, Peter, 1995. "The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 317-340, April.
    5. Michal Rubaszek & Dobromil Serwa, 2011. "Determinants of credit to households in a life-cycle model," NBP Working Papers 92, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Sophocles Brissimis & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2009. "The Interaction between Mortgage Financing and Housing Prices in Greece," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 146-164, August.
    7. Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 605-628, December.
    8. de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
    9. Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Christoffer Kok Sørensen & Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela, 2011. "Macroeconomic Propagation under Different Regulatory Regimes: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 49-113, December.
    10. Hempell, Hannah S. & Kok, Christoffer, 2010. "The impact of supply constraints on bank lending in the euro area - crisis induced crunching?," Working Paper Series 1262, European Central Bank.
    11. Sophocles Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & Christos Papazoglou & Nicholas Tsaveas & Melina Vasardani, 2012. "Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 71-95, February.
    12. Chrystal, K Alec & Mizen, Paul, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Money, Credit, and Consumption: A Joint Model for the UK Household Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 119-143, February.
    13. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose, 1993. "Financial Innovation and Money Demand: Application to Chile and Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 524-530, August.
    14. Yoshihisa Baba & David F. Hendry & Ross M. Starr, 1992. "The Demand for M1 in the U.S.A., 1960–1988," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 25-61.
    15. Jan Kakes, 2000. "Identifying the mechanism: is there a bank lending channel of monetary transmission in the Netherlands?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 63-67.
    16. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2010. "Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and Monetary Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 8125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    19. Hülsewig Oliver & Winker Peter & Worms Andreas, 2004. "Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission: A VECM Analysis for Germany / Bankkredite und geldpolitische Transmission: Eine VECM Analyse für Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(5), pages 511-529, October.
    20. Kok, Christoffer & Rossi, Carlotta & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2009. "Modelling loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area," Working Paper Series 989, European Central Bank.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    22. Friedrich Fritzer & Lukas Reiss, 2008. "An Analysis of Credit to the Household Sector in Austria," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 16, pages 122-134.
    23. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    24. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João & Manrique, Marta, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    26. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
    27. Fase, M. M. G. & Kramer, P. & Boeschoten, W. C., 1992. "MORKMON II : The Nederlandsche Bank's quarterly model of the Netherlands economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 146-204, April.
    28. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2010. "Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and Monetary Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 8125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oyvat, Cem, 2020. "The role of global finance in the provisioning of social infrastructure and the welfare state," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 26750, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    2. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Kamau, Anne, 2015. "Local and international dimensions to credit provision by commercial banks in Kenya," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 14, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    4. V. A. Pankova, 2022. "Modeling the Dynamics of Retail Lending in Russia: a Relationship with the Dynamics of Household Savings, Incomes, and Expenses," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 723-735, December.
    5. Sarantis Lolos & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2011. "Housing credit and female labour supply: assessing the evidence from Greece," Working Papers 141, Bank of Greece.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Vouldis, Angelos, 2015. "Credit market disequilibrium in Greece (2003-2011) - a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 1805, European Central Bank.
    8. Soldatos, Gerasimos, 2018. "A discussion of joint bank and industry concentration," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 14(2), February.
    9. Deryugina, Elena & Kovalenko, Olga & Pantina, Irina & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Teresa Herrador-Alcaide & Montserrat Hernández-Solís, 2019. "Empirical Study Regarding Non-Financial Disclosure for Social Conscious Consumption in the Spanish E-Credit Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, February.
    12. Shalkar Baikulakov, 2019. "An equilibrium level of credits in the economy of Kazakhstan," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-2.
    13. Angelos T. Vouldis & Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2018. "Leading indicators of non-performing loans in Greece: the information content of macro-, micro- and bank-specific variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1187-1214, May.
    14. Vogiazas, Sophocles & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2014. "‘Putting The Horse Before The Cart’: A Pre-Crisis Panel Data Investigation Of Greek Bank’S Credit Growth," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 10(1-2), January.
    15. Angelika Knollmayer & Aleksandra Riedl & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2015. "The mixed success of EU-IMF adjustment programs in Europe – why Greece was different," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 52-70.
    16. Elena Deryugina & Olga Kovalenko & Irina Pantina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps3, Bank of Russia.
    17. Mr. Etibar Jafarov & Mr. Rodolfo Maino & Mr. Marco Pani, 2019. "Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again," IMF Working Papers 2019/211, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:pra:mprapa:40579 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sophocles Brissimis & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2009. "The Interaction between Mortgage Financing and Housing Prices in Greece," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 146-164, August.
    4. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States: will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 543, European Central Bank.
    5. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2005. "Changes in financial structure and asset price substitutability: A test of the bank lending channel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 879-904, September.
    6. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2015. "Determinants of Bank Lending," Working Papers hal-01158241, HAL.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Ghosh, Taniya & Adil, Masudul Hasan, 2022. "Is money demand really unstable? Evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 606-622.
    8. Faugere, Christophe, 2010. "Macrofoundations for A (Near) 2% Inflation Target," MPRA Paper 23491, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2010.
    9. Francisco Serranito & Philipp RODERWEIS & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "Is Quantitative Easing Productive? The Role of Bank Lending in the Monetary Transmission Process," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Saten Kumar, 2016. "Is the US Consumer Credit Asymmetric?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 194-215, May.
    11. Shijaku, Gerti & Kalluci, Irini, 2013. "Determinants of bank credit to the private sector: The case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    13. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
    14. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2016. "Interest parity, cointegration, and the term structure: Testing in an integrated framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 281-294.
    15. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João & Manrique, Marta, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank.
    16. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Calza, Alessandro & Gartner, Christine & Sousa, João, 2001. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Working Paper Series 55, European Central Bank.
    19. de Mello, Luiz & Pisu, Mauro, 2010. "The bank lending channel of monetary transmission in Brazil: A VECM approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 50-60, February.
    20. Wang, Ling, 2022. "The dynamics of money supply determination under asset purchase programs: A market-based versus a bank-based financial system," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    21. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2006. "Dynamic modelling of trade union behaviour: Evidence from the Greek manufacturing sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-338, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer credit; Financial liberalisation; Cointegration; Structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anastasios Rizos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boggvgr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.