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Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: an overreaction to repressed demand?

Author

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  • Sophocles Brissimis

    (University of Piraeus and Bank of Greece)

  • Eugenie Garganas

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Stephen G. Hall

    (Bank of Greece, University of Leicester and University of Pretoria)

Abstract

In this paper we empirically analyse the factors which determined consumer credit in Greece in the period before and after the financial liberalisation, while accounting for significant changes in structure due to the lifting of credit restrictions and the subsequent impressive boom of consumer loans. We use multivariate cointegration techniques to estimate a vector error correction model (VECM) and identify separate demand and supply relationships for consumer loans. We introduce demand and supply-related shifts in parameters through the inclusion of appropriate dummy variables and trends in the long-run relationships. We partly deviate from the typical Johansen procedure and estimate the model in two steps. We find that the theoretical exclusion and coefficient-size restrictions on the demand and supply cointegrating vectors are valid. Our results are consistent with the operation of a bank lending channel in Greece. We also find that the supply side was mostly responsible for the acceleration of consumer loan growth following credit liberalisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophocles Brissimis & Eugenie Garganas & Stephen G. Hall, 2012. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: an overreaction to repressed demand?," Working Papers 148, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:148
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    2. Vouldis, Angelos, 2015. "Credit market disequilibrium in Greece (2003-2011) - a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 1805, European Central Bank.
    3. Soldatos, Gerasimos, 2018. "A discussion of joint bank and industry concentration," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 14(2), February.
    4. Deryugina, Elena & Kovalenko, Olga & Pantina, Irina & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Oyvat, Cem, 2020. "The role of global finance in the provisioning of social infrastructure and the welfare state," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 26750, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    7. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Kamau, Anne, 2015. "Local and international dimensions to credit provision by commercial banks in Kenya," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 14, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    9. Teresa Herrador-Alcaide & Montserrat Hernández-Solís, 2019. "Empirical Study Regarding Non-Financial Disclosure for Social Conscious Consumption in the Spanish E-Credit Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, February.
    10. V. A. Pankova, 2022. "Modeling the Dynamics of Retail Lending in Russia: a Relationship with the Dynamics of Household Savings, Incomes, and Expenses," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 723-735, December.
    11. Shalkar Baikulakov, 2019. "An equilibrium level of credits in the economy of Kazakhstan," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-2.
    12. Sarantis Lolos & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2011. "Housing credit and female labour supply: assessing the evidence from Greece," Working Papers 141, Bank of Greece.
    13. Angelos T. Vouldis & Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2018. "Leading indicators of non-performing loans in Greece: the information content of macro-, micro- and bank-specific variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1187-1214, May.
    14. Vogiazas, Sophocles & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2014. "‘Putting The Horse Before The Cart’: A Pre-Crisis Panel Data Investigation Of Greek Bank’S Credit Growth," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 10(1-2), January.
    15. Angelika Knollmayer & Aleksandra Riedl & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2015. "The mixed success of EU-IMF adjustment programs in Europe – why Greece was different," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 52-70.
    16. Elena Deryugina & Olga Kovalenko & Irina Pantina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps3, Bank of Russia.
    17. Mr. Etibar Jafarov & Mr. Rodolfo Maino & Mr. Marco Pani, 2019. "Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again," IMF Working Papers 2019/211, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer credit; Financial liberalisation; Cointegration; Structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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