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The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Transmission in Brazil: A VECM Approach

Author

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  • Luiz de Mello

    (OECD)

  • Mauro Pisu

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper tests for the existence of a bank lending channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Brazil using monthly aggregate data for the period 1995:12 through 2008:6. The test is carried out in a VECM setting that allows for multiple cointegrating relationships among the variables of interest. We find evidence of two cointegrating vectors, which we identify as bank loan demand and supply functions by testing for a number of exclusion and exogeneity restrictions on the cointegrating relationships. Loan supply is negatively related to the interbank deposit certificate rate in the long term, which confirms the existence of a lending channel for monetary transmission. The VECM’s short-term dynamics show that loan demand is equilibrium-correcting. But short-term disequilibria in the supply of loans are corrected through changes in the interbank deposit certificate rate, suggesting that monetary policy plays a role in restoring equilibrium in the credit market by affecting the borrowing rate faced by banks to raise non-deposit funds. This Working Paper relates to the 2009 OECD Economic Survey of Brazil (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/brazil) Le crédit bancaire comme canal de transmission de la politique monétaire au Brésil : Un modèle à correction d'erreur Ce document teste l’hypothèse de l’existence du crédit bancaire comme canal de transmission de la politique monétaire au Brésil à l’aide de données mensuelles agrégées pour la période allant de décembre 1995 à juin 2008. Le test est effectué dans le cadre d’un modèle à correction d’erreur (VECM) qui permet plusieurs vecteurs de cointégration parmi les variables d’intérêt. L’analyse empirique révèle l’existence de deux vecteurs de cointégration, que nous identifions comme la demande et l’offre de crédit bancaire sur la base d’un certain nombre de restrictions d’exclusion et d’exogénéité imposées sur les vecteurs de cointégration. L’offre des prêts bancaires est inversement liée au taux de long terme des certificats de dépôt interbancaire, ce qui confirme l’existence du crédit bancaire comme canal de transmission de la politique monétaire. La dynamique de court terme du VECM montre que la demande des prêts s’ajuste à l’équilibre de long terme. Mais à court terme, les déséquilibres dans l'offre des prêts sont corrigés par des changements dans le taux des certificats de dépôt interbancaire, ce qui suggère que la politique monétaire joue un rôle dans le rétablissement de l’équilibre sur le marché du crédit en affectant le taux d’emprunt des banques. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE du Brésil, 2009 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/brésil).

Suggested Citation

  • Luiz de Mello & Mauro Pisu, 2009. "The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Transmission in Brazil: A VECM Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 711, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:711-en
    DOI: 10.1787/222818683155
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zuzanna Wosko, 2016. "Determinants of credit in the Polish banking sector before and after the GFC according to information from the NBP Senior Loan Officer Survey. Does supply or demand matter?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Leonardo S. Alencar, 2012. "Revisiting Bank Pricing Policies in Brazil: Evidence from Loan and Deposit Markets," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(67), pages 35-71, December.
    4. Kapounek, Svatopluk & Kučerová, Zuzana & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2017. "Lending conditions in EU: The role of credit demand and supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 285-293.
    5. Carrera, César, 2011. "El canal del crédito bancario en el Perú: Evidencia y mecanismo de transmisión," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 63-82.
    6. Perevyshina, E. & Perevyshin, Y., 2015. "Evaluation of Credit Channel in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 96-110.
    7. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:3:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Deryugina, Elena & Kovalenko, Olga & Pantina, Irina & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Tavares, Debora Pereira & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2013. "Canal de Transmissão da Política Monetária Por Meio dos Seguros Contratados Pelo Setor Bancário," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(3), September.
    10. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Gabriel Gonçalves do Vale Monteiro, 2014. "Monetary policy, prudential regulation and investment: Evidence from Brazil considering the bank lending channel," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 881-906, November.
    11. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caroline Cabral Machado, 2013. "Credibility and the credit channel transmission of monetary policy theoretical model and econometric analysis for Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 469-492, August.
    12. Montes, Gabriel Caldas, 2013. "Credibility and monetary transmission channels under inflation targeting: An econometric analysis from a developing country," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 670-684.
    13. Asbeig & Kassim, 2015. "Monetary transmission during low interest rate environment in a dual banking system: evidence from Malaysia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-285, November.
    14. Gabriel Caldas Montes & José Américo Pereira Antunes & Alexei Ferreira Araújo, 2021. "Effects of monetary policy and credibility on financial intermediation: evidence from the Brazilian banking sector," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1191-1219, March.
    15. Sanfilippo-Azofra, Sergio & Torre-Olmo, Begoña & Cantero-Saiz, María & López-Gutiérrez, Carlos, 2018. "Financial development and the bank lending channel in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 215-234.
    16. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Vitor R. C. Britto, 2017. "Interest rate and credit channel for households and firms: Evidence from a large emerging economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 586-604.
    17. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Peixoto, Gabriel Barros Tavares, 2014. "Risk-taking channel, bank lending channel and the “paradox of credibility”," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 82-94.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank lending channel; canal du crédit bancaire; modèle à correction d’erreur; monetary transmission mechanism; mécanisme de transmission monétaire; vector error-correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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