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The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth

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  • de Bondt, Gabe
  • Maddaloni, Angela
  • Peydró, José-Luis
  • Scopel, Silvia

Abstract

This study examines empirically the information content of the euro area Bank Lending Survey for aggregate credit and output growth. The responses of the lending survey, especially those related to loans to enterprises, are a significant leading indicator for euro area bank credit and real GDP growth. Notwithstanding the short history of the survey, the findings are robust across various specifications, including “horse races” with other well-known leading financial indicators. Our results are supportive of the existence of a bank lending, balance sheet, and risk-taking channel of monetary policy. They also suggest that price as well as non-price conditions and terms of credit standards do matter for credit and business cycles. Finally, we discuss the implications for the 2007/2009 financial and economic crisis. JEL Classification: C23, E32, E51, E52, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    2. Gilchrist, S. & Mojon, B., 2014. "Credit Risk in the Euro area," Working papers 482, Banque de France.
    3. Silvia Del Prete & Marcello Pagnini & Paola Rossi & Valerio Vacca, 2017. "Lending organization and credit supply during the 2008-09 crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1108, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Cohen, Benjamin H. & Scatigna, Michela, 2016. "Banks and capital requirements: Channels of adjustment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 56-69.
    5. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Eugenie N. Garganas & Stephen G. Hall, 2014. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalization: an overreaction to repressed demand?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 139-152, January.
    6. Bassett, William F. & Chosak, Mary Beth & Driscoll, John C. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Changes in bank lending standards and the macroeconomy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 23-40.
    7. Nir Klein, 2014. "Small and Medium Size Enterprises, Credit Supply Shocks, and Economic Recovery in Europe," IMF Working Papers 14/98, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Andrea Nobili & Andrea Orame, 2015. "Estimating the effects of a credit supply restriction: is there a bias in the Bank Lending Survey?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 266, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & Jose Luis Peydro, 2015. "Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 979-1002, October.
    10. Giovanni Verga & Maria-Gaia Soana, 2012. "Supply and demand in the European credit market during the recent crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(16), pages 1355-1366, August.
    11. V. Chiorazzo & V. D’Apice & P. Morelli & Giovanni W. Puopolo, 2015. "Economic Activity and Credit Market Linkages: New Evidence from Italy," CSEF Working Papers 413, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    12. Andrew Filardo & Pierre Siklos, 2018. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," BIS Working Papers 723, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Unger, Robert, 2017. "External financing and economic activity in the euro area: Why are bank loans special?," Discussion Papers 04/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Edwige Burdeau, 2015. "Assessing dynamics of credit supply and demand for French SMEs, an estimation based on the Bank Lending Survey," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39 Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
    16. Deryugina, Elena & Kovalenko, Olga & Pantina, Irina & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    17. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    18. Scopel, Silvia & Hempell, Hannah S. & Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra, 2016. "The euro area bank lending survey," Occasional Paper Series 179, European Central Bank.
    19. Kaya, Orcun & Wang, Lulu, 2014. "The role of bank lending tightening on corporate bond issuance in the eurozone," CFS Working Paper Series 456, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    20. Aykut Ekinci, 2016. "Rethinking Credit Risk under the Malinvestment Concept: The Case of Germany, Spain and Italy," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(1), pages 39-64.
    21. Christian Beer & Walter Waschiczek, 2012. "Analyzing Corporate Loan Growth in Austria Using Bank Lending Survey Data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 61-80.
    22. Wäckerle, Manuel, 2013. "On the bottom-up foundations of the banking-macro nexus," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-45.
    23. Stijn Ferrari & Glenn Schepens & Patrick Van Roy, 2013. "Loans to non-financial corporations: what can we learn from credit condition surveys?," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 11(1), pages 103-117, June.
    24. Costa, Stefano & Malgarini, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2012. "Access to credit for Italian firms: new evidence from the ISTAT confidence business surveys," MPRA Paper 41389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Dyna Heng, 2015. "Impact of the New Financial Services Law in Bolivia on Financial Stability and Inclusion," IMF Working Papers 15/267, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank lending survey; business cycle; credit cycle; euro area; Monetary policy transmission;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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