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The Real Effects of Financial Sector Risk

Author

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  • Andrea M. Maechler
  • Alexander F. Tieman

Abstract

This paper estimates the magnitude of key effects on the real economy from financial sector stress. We focus on the short-run feedback effect from market-based indicators of financial sector risk to the real economy through the credit channel, and estimate this effect on an economy-wide (macro) level, as well as on the level of individual large banks. Both estimates yield significant feedback effects of substantial magnitude. The estimates are consistent with other work in this area. Our results suggest that prudential supervision could be enhanced by taking into account the feedback effects of financial instability in the real economy. We also propose a way to integrate feedback effects into stress tests in order to improve realism and accuracy or macroeconomic stress scenarios, as well as a metric to interpret stress testing results.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea M. Maechler & Alexander F. Tieman, 2009. "The Real Effects of Financial Sector Risk," IMF Working Papers 2009/198, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
    2. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Doni Satria & Solikin M. Juhro, 2011. "Risk Behavior In The Transmission Mechanism Of Monetary Policy In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 13(3), pages 243-270, January.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Colombia: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/106, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Mark Swinburne & Stéphanie Marie Stolz & Ms. Marina Moretti, 2008. "Stress Testing at the IMF," IMF Working Papers 2008/206, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

    WP; bank; credit growth; GDP;
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