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Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy

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  • Paolo Del Giovane

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Ginette Eramo

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Nobili

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper combines qualitative information from the Eurosystem Bank Lending Survey with micro-data on loan prices and quantities for the participating Italian banks to assess the role of supply and demand factors in credit developments, with a focus on the sharp slowdown of 2008-09. Both demand and supply have played a relevant role, especially for lending to enterprises, in the whole sample period and during the financial crisis. A counterfactual exercise shows that the effect of supply factors on the growth of lending to firms was strongest after the Lehman collapse. On average, over the crisis period (2007q3-2009q4) the negative effect on the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the panel banks� lending to enterprises can be estimated in a range of 2.2 to 3.1 percentage points, depending on the specification. About one fourth of the total supply effect can be attributed to costs related to the banks� balance sheet position, the rest to their perception of credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Del Giovane & Ginette Eramo & Andrea Nobili, 2010. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_764_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit growth; supply tightening; financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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