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Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison

  • Carmen M. Reinhart
  • Kenneth S. Rogoff

¿Es verdaderamente la crisis financiera 2007-2008 de las hipotecas sub-prime en EEUU, un fenómeno nuevo y diferente? Nuestro examen de los registros históricos más extensos encuentra asombrosas similitudes, tanto cuantitativas como cualitativas, con 18 crisis financieras en países industrializados durante la temprana posguerra. En particular, la aceleración de los precios de las acciones y de las viviendas en EEUU (que la literatura sobre crisis financieras destaca como el mejor indicador líder para países que experimentan grandes entradas de capitales,) sigue muy de cerca el promedio verificado en las primeras crisis. Otra similitud importante es la forma en V invertida adoptada por la curva de crecimiento de la producción en Estados Unidos, a medida que la economía se enfriaba en vísperas de la crisis. Entre los otros indicadores, la aceleración de la deuda pública estadounidense está algo por debajo del promedio de otros episodios; la inflación pre-crisis también está en un nivel inferior. Por otro lado, la trayectoria de su déficit en cuenta corriente es peor que el promedio. Una pregunta crítica es si la crisis estadounidense resultará ser similar a las más severas crisis de los países industrializados, en cuyo caso el crecimiento podría caer significativamente por debajo de la tendencia durante un período prolongado. ¿O resultará ser similar a los episodios más leves, en los que la recuperación fue relativamente rápida? Mucho dependerá de cuán grande resulte el shock sobre el sistema financiero y, en menor medida, en la eficacia de la subsiguientes medidas de política económica que se adopten en respuesta a la crisis.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 98 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 339-44

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:98:y:2008:i:2:p:339-44
Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.2.339
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