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Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?

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Listed:
  • Norman Loayza

    (The World Bank)

  • Amine Ouazad

    (HEC Montreal)

  • Romain Ranciere

    (University of Southern California)

Abstract

This paper reviews the evolving literature that links financial development, financial crises, and economic growth in the past 20 years. The initial disconnect—with one literature focusing on the effect of financial deepening on long-run growth and another studying its impact on volatility and crisis—has given way to a more nuanced approach that analyzes the two phenomena in an integrated framework. The main finding of this literature is that financial deepening leads to a trade-off between higher economic growth and higher crisis risk; and its main conclusion is that, for at least middle-income countries, the positive growth effects outweigh the negative crisis risk impact. This balanced view has been revisited recently for advanced economies, where an emerging and controversial literature supports the notion of "too much finance," suggesting that there might be a threshold beyond which financial depth becomes detrimental for economic growth by crowding out other productive activities and misallocating resources. Nevertheless, the growth/crisis trade-off is alive and strong for a large share of the world economy. Recognizing the intrinsic trade-offs of financial development can provide a useful framework to design policies targeting financial deepening, diversity, and inclusion. In particular, acknowledging the trade-offs can highlight the need for complementary policies to mitigate the risks, from financial macroprudential policies to monetary policy frameworks that monitor the growth of credit and asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Norman Loayza & Amine Ouazad & Romain Ranciere, 2017. "Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?," Working Papers 2017-114, Peruvian Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:2017-114
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    4. Ch.-M. CHEVALIER, 2018. "Financial constraints of innovative firms and sectoral growth," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2018-05, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    5. Cristian Valeriu Paun & Radu Cristian Musetescu & Vladimir Mihai Topan & Dan Constantin Danuletiu, 2019. "The Impact of Financial Sector Development and Sophistication on Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, March.
    6. Richard Kozul-Wright & Daniel Poon, 2018. "Asian development after the Asian Drama," WIDER Working Paper Series 135, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    8. Ekkehard Ernst, 2019. "Finance and Jobs: How Financial Markets and Prudential Regulation Shape Unemployment Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, January.
    9. Marta de la Cuesta-González & Cristina Ruza & José M. Rodríguez-Fernández, 2020. "Rethinking the Income Inequality and Financial Development Nexus. A Study of Nine OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-18, July.
    10. Sebastian Doerr, 2019. "Unintended side effects: stress tests, entrepreneurship, and innovation," BIS Working Papers 823, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Adam Altăr & Matei Nicolae Kubinschi & Alina Zaharia, 2021. "Uncovering the Dynamic Relationship between Credit and Sustainable Economic Growth in Selected CEE Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    12. Campos, Nauro F & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Martelli, Angelo & Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Financial Crises and Liberalisation: Progress or Reversals?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13776, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2021. "The rich, the poor, and the middle class: banking crises and income distribution," Working Papers halshs-03269859, HAL.
    14. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Richard Kozul-Wright & Daniel Poon, 2018. "Asian development after the Asian Drama," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-135, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance; Financial Deepening; Development; Growth; Productivity; Crisis; Volatility; Risk; Macroprudential Policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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