IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ucbewp/233197.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Obstfeld, Maurice

Abstract

This paper develops a stochastic continuous-time model in which international risk sharing can yield substantial welfare gains through its positive effect on expected consumption growth. The mechanism linking global diversification to growth is an attendant world portfolio shift from safe but low-yield capital into riskier high-yield capital. The presence of these two types of capital is meant to capture the idea that growth depends on the availability of an ever-increasing array of specialized, hence inherently risky, production inputs. Calibration exercises based on international consumption and stock market data imply that most countries reap large steady-state welfare gains from global financial integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Obstfeld, Maurice, 1993. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233197, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbewp:233197
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.233197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/233197/files/cal-cider-c093-016.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
    3. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    4. Devereux, Michael B & Smith, Gregor W, 1994. "International Risk Sharing and Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 535-550, August.
    5. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    6. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    7. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1994. "Flexibility, investment, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 215-238, October.
    8. Barro, Robert J & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 103-115, March.
    9. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "Technological choice, financial markets and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 763-781, May.
    10. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    12. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
    13. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    14. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    15. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
    16. Cooley, Thomas F. & Smith, Bruce D., 1998. "Financial markets, specialization, and learning by doing," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 333-361, December.
    17. Jonathan Eaton, 1981. "Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Accumulation of Risky Capital," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 435-445.
    18. Svensson, Lars E O, 1988. "Trade in Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 375-394, June.
    19. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    20. Kenneth J. Arrow, 1962. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 155-173.
    21. Aghion, P. & Saint-Paul, G., 1991. "On The Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction Between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," DELTA Working Papers 91-23, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    22. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
    23. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    24. Stulz, Rene M, 1987. "An Equilibrium Model of Exchange Rate Determination and Asset Pricing with Nontraded Goods and Imperfect Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1024-1040, October.
    25. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
    26. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1989. "Portfolio choice with non-expected utility in continuous time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 313-317, October.
    27. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1991. "Capital Controls and the Gains from Trade in a Business Cycle Model of a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 480-505, September.
    28. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo Manuelli, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth," NBER Working Papers 3241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    30. Grossman, Gene M & Shapiro, Carl, 1982. "A Theory of Factor Mobility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 1054-1069, October.
    31. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-394, March.
    32. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1008-1038, October.
    33. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smith, William T., 1999. "Risk, the Spirit of Capitalism and Growth: The Implications of a Preference for Capital," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 241-262, April.
    2. Smith, William T., 1996. "Taxes, uncertainty, and long-term growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1647-1664, November.
    3. Clemens, Christiane & Soretz, Susanne, 1999. "Konsequenzen des Zins- und Einkommensrisikos auf das wirtschaftliche Wachstum," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-221, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    4. Patrick Artus, 1993. "Croissance endogène : revue des modèles et tentatives de synthèse," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(2), pages 189-228.
    5. Bertola, Giuseppe, 2000. "Macroeconomics of distribution and growth," Handbook of Income Distribution, in: A.B. Atkinson & F. Bourguignon (ed.), Handbook of Income Distribution, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 477-540, Elsevier.
    6. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1997. "The sources of growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 75-114, January.
    7. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Smith, William T., 2006. "Equilibrium consumption and precautionary savings in a stochastically growing economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 243-278, February.
    8. Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Consumption, stock returns, and the gains from international risk-sharing," Working Papers 96-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Clemens, Christiane & Soretz, Susanne, 1997. "Welfare Effects of Income Taxation in a Model of Stochastic Growth," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-210, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    10. Renelt, David, 1991. "Economic growth : a review of the theoretical and empirical literature," Policy Research Working Paper Series 678, The World Bank.
    11. Evans, Lynne & Kenc, Turalay, 2004. "FOREX risk premia and policy uncertainty: a recursive utility analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, February.
    12. Lau, Sau-Him Paul & Sin, Chor-Yiu, 1997. "Observational equivalence and a stochastic cointegration test of the neoclassical and Romer's increasing returns models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, January.
    13. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    14. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    15. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    16. Stefania Villa, 2005. "Determinants of growth in Italy. A time series analysis," Quaderni DSEMS 24-2005, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    17. Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1031-1054, September.
    18. Matsen, Egil, 2003. "Habit persistence and welfare gains from international asset trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 239-260, April.
    19. Kenc, Turalay, 2004. "Taxation, risk-taking and growth: a continuous-time stochastic general equilibrium analysis with labor-leisure choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1511-1539, June.
    20. Pommeret, Aude & Smith, William T., 2005. "Fertility, volatility, and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 347-353, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Development; Risk and Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ucbewp:233197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/debrkus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.