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Consumption, Stock Returns, and the Gains from International Risk-Sharing

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  • Karen K. Lewis

Abstract

Standard theoretical models predict that domestic residents should diversify their portfolios into foreign assets much more than observed in practice. Whether this lack of diversification is important depends upon the potential gains from risk-sharing. General equilibrium models and consumption data tend to find that the costs are small, typically less than «% of permanent consumption. On the other hand, stock returns imply gains that are several hundred times larger. In this paper, I examine the reasons for these differences. I find that the primary differences are due to either: (a) the much higher variability of stocks, and/or (b) the higher degree of risk aversion required to reconcile an international equity premium. On the other hand, the significant differences do not arise treating stock returns as exogenous.

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  • Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Consumption, Stock Returns, and the Gains from International Risk-Sharing," NBER Working Papers 5410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5410
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    Cited by:

    1. Pang, Ke, 2013. "Financial integration, nominal rigidity, and monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 75-90.
    2. Auffret, Philippe, 2001. "An alternative unifying measure of welfare gains from risk-sharing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2676, The World Bank.
    3. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2004. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1223-1256, December.
    4. Athanasoulis, Stefano G. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2000. "Growth uncertainty and risksharing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 477-505, June.
    5. Mirakhor, Abbas, 2007. "Islamic Finance and Globalization: A Convergence?," MPRA Paper 56026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. van Wincoop, Eric, 1999. "How big are potential welfare gains from international risksharing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 109-135, February.
    7. Stafano Athanasoulis & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Risksharing within the United States: what have financial markets and fiscal federalism accomplished?," Research Paper 9808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Athanasoulis, Stefano & van Wincoop, Eric, 1997. "Growth Uncertainty And Risksharing," Economic Reports 18194, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Lee, Khang Min & Moyen, Nathalie, 2006. "Optimal liberalization of financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1319-1335, December.
    10. Callen, Michael & Imbs, Jean & Mauro, Paolo, 2015. "Pooling risk among countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 88-99.
    11. Patrick F. Rowland & Linda L. Tesar, 2004. "Multinationals and the Gains from International Diversification," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 789-826, October.
    12. Olivia S. Mitchell & Zvi Bodie, "undated". "A Framework for Analyzing and Managing Retirement Risks," Pension Research Council Working Papers 2000-4, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    13. Okina, Kunio & Shirakawa, Masaaki & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1999. "Financial Market Globalization: Present and Future," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 1-40, December.
    14. Cevdet Aydemir, A., 2008. "Risk sharing and counter-cyclical variation in market correlations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3084-3112, October.
    15. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries; Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Wolfgang Eggert & Maximilian Stephan & Janine Temme & Handirk von Ungern-Sternberg, 2015. "Diversification, Risk Aversion and Expectation in a Holdout Scenario," CESifo Working Paper Series 5527, CESifo Group Munich.
    17. Luiz Fernando Rodrigues de Paula & Tiago Rinaldi Meyer & JoãoAdelino de Faria Júnior & Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires, 2011. "FinancialLiberalization, Economic Performance and Macroeconomic Stability inBrazil: an assessment of the recent period," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 100, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1031-1054, September.
    19. Iwata, Shigeru & Wu, Shu, 2009. "Stock market liberalization and international risk sharing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 461-476, July.

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