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World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities

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Abstract

We provide a method for decomposing the variance of changes in incomes in the world into components, world income components (WICs), in such a way as to indicate the most important risk-sharing opportunities among people of the world. We develop a constant absolute risk premium model, an intertemporal general equilibrium model of the world that facilitates consideration of optimal contract design. We show that for a contract designer maximizing a social welfare function, the optimal risk-management contracts maximize the equilibrium world real interest rate. That is the contract designer achieves the risk-optimal interest rate. We show that these WIC securities are defined in terms of eigenvectors of a transformed variance matrix of income changes. The method is applied with a variance matrix estimated using Penn World Table data on the G-7 countries, 1950-92.

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  • Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller, 1999. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1239, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1239
    Note: CFP 1029.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Social Security and Individual Accounts as Elements of Overall Risk-Sharing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 343-347, May.
    2. Desmet, Klaus & Le Breton, Michel & Ortuno-Ortin, Ignacio, 2006. "Nation Formation and Genetic Diversity," IDEI Working Papers 133, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    3. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2002. "The States vs. the states: On the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in the U.S," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 20-17, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques, revised Oct 2002.
    4. Shawn Cole & Xavier Gine & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2013. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 104-135, January.
    5. David Kim & Jeffrey Sheen, 2007. "Consumption Risk-Sharing within Australia and with New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 46-59, March.
    6. Mark Kamstra & Robert Shiller, 2009. "The Case for Trills: Giving the People and Their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2418, Yale School of Management.
    7. Maria Giduskova & Borja Larrain, 2006. "International risk-taking, volatility, and consumption growth," Communities and Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Athanasoulis, Stefano G. & Shiller, Robert J., 2002. "Defining residual risk-sharing opportunities: Pooling world income components," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 61-84, June.
    9. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2007. "Optimal external debt and default," 2007 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Viral V. Acharya & Alberto Bisin, 2005. "Optimal Financial-Market Integration and Security Design," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2397-2434, November.
    11. Mario Sarcinelli, 2003. "Crisi economiche e mercati finanziari: di aiuto un nuovo ordine finanziario?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 56(224), pages 387-422.
    12. Damodaran, A., 2009. "Risk management instruments for debt driven conservation efforts: The case of India's Project Tiger," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 625-633, January.
    13. Ken Miyajima, 2006. "How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants; Price and Repayment Capacity," IMF Working Papers 06/85, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Constant Absolute Risk Premium; risk-optimal interest rate; three-level income model; WIC securities; contract design; macro markets; hedging;

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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