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Are Industrial-Country Consumption Risks Globally Diversified?

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  • Obstfeld, Maurice

Abstract

What idiosyncratic consumption risks can counties trade away on international asset markets? This paper develops an empirical methodology for answering the question. The tests are based on the proposition that in an integrated world asset market with representative national agents, the ex post difference between two countries' intertemporal marginal rates of substitution in consumption is uncorrelated with any random variable on which contractual payoffs can be conditioned. This result is applied to annual time-series data for the seven largest industrial countries over 1950-88. Of these counties, Germany seems to have been most successful at internationally diversifying its consumption risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Obstfeld, Maurice, 1993. "Are Industrial-Country Consumption Risks Globally Diversified?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233194, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbewp:233194
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/233194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kollmann, Robert, 1995. "Consumption, real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 191-211, April.
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    3. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    4. Devereux, Michael B. & Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1992. "Realistic cross-country consumption correlations in a two-country, equilibrium, business cycle model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-16, February.
    5. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    6. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
    7. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-436, June.
    8. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    9. Radner, Roy, 1972. "Existence of Equilibrium of Plans, Prices, and Price Expectations in a Sequence of Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 289-303, March.
    10. repec:cdl:ucsbec:16-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "How Integrated are World Capital Markets? Some New Tests," NBER Working Papers 2075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    13. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "A Simple Test of Consumption Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 957-976, October.
    14. Mace, Barbara J, 1991. "Full Insurance in the Presence of Aggregate Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 928-956, October.
    15. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January.
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    17. David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1992. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Exchange Economies with Nontraded Goods," Working Papers 92-7, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    18. repec:cdl:ucsbec:16-90 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international diversification; financial integration; International Development; F36; G15;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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